Welcome back fantasy enthusiasts! After a short hiatus from posting fantasy football articles, I am back and better than ever to bring you the Ultimate Guide to Mock Drafting. In this two-part article, I will go over strategies of mock drafting, and then go round-by-round with explanations of my picks through a mock draft I did on June 7^th 2016.

 

So the first question you may be asking yourself after reading the title is why should I mock draft? Well if you want to get good at anything, practice is key. In the mock I illuminate in the 2nd part of this article, I made a few picks that I questioned as I picked them. For example, in round 3 I had the decision to pick either Sammy Watkins or T.Y. Hilton. While I think I would be happy with either pick had this been a real draft, using all available resources to figure out which pick you would prefer is very helpful when it comes time for the real deal. There is nothing worse than spending all season regretting a high draft pick, and this is the best way to figure out your comfort level with drafting certain players.

 

So how often should I do mock drafts? I like to do one in the beginning of the drafting season (around this time) then another one or two a bit closer to draft time. The week of your fantasy draft, I would recommend doing a few to familiarize yourself with the current ADP. (Something I will explain later in this article) If you know what spot you are drafting in (say 4^th overall) this is extremely valuable as you can place yourself in that spot in mock drafts to see who is likely to be available when you will do your real draft. This helps with making last minute decisions on players.

 

Before I get into general guidelines for mock drafting, I will say that I spend more time than the average person analyzing everything about every possible fantasy player. I will be publishing articles following this one that will detail algorithms that I have been developing for a couple of years based on trends I have picked up on to predict a player’s fantasy performance. While they aren’t law, looking at certain factors are extremely useful when picking between two players. Something as little thought about as fantasy playoff strength of schedule could be a major difference maker in drafting one player over another who seemingly was on a similar talent and situational plane.

 

After saying that, here are some general guidelines I attempt to adhere when I mock draft:

 

1. My first and probably most important rule of mock drafting is to be flexible. Drafts are dynamic and unpredictable. While having guidelines, and targets is important, it is even more important to have backup plans. If you only target 1 guy per round, you are likely to be disappointed with your final roster. I play on ESPN.com, and in their draft tool, you have a window where you can drag players that you are thinking about drafting. I am constantly scrolling down to find players that I want on my team and dropping them in there. If I am 2 or 3 picks away, my goal is to have 3 or 4 players in that queue so even if my top few options get picked, I have someone I am still content with taking right there.

 

2. My second most important rule is to understand value. Fantasy drafters who understand value best end up with the best drafts. It’s arguably just as important as the first rule, and part of understanding value means that you have to know the NFL inside and out. I’ll admit to being a little bit preoccupied with reading anything I can get my hands on about the NFL sometimes. I am on Bleacher Report more than I care to admit, I get alerts about basically anything NFL related sent directly to my phone, and I get daily emails updating me about everything that goes on in the football world. Quick shout out to Footballguys.com who send me those daily emails. If you want to stay up to date on the NFL, they are a fantastic place to start.

 

-The first part of understanding value is knowing how to manipulate average draft position. (ADP) ADP is an ever-changing measure of where a player gets drafted. ADP is an average draft spot of any given player taken from hundreds of drafts. For example, for the draft I did in this article, Antonio Brown’s ADP was first overall (1.01), as he is most frequently drafted into that spot. ADP is a good tool for beginners, but advanced owners know how to take advantage of and manipulate ADP. There are a few ways to do this:

 

One way to do this is waiting to draft a player that you want based on his ADP. For example, if you think Andrew Luck is going to light the world on fire this year, and you are sitting in round 3 itching to draft him, check out his ADP: If he is generally being taken closer to round 7, and after 5 other QB’s, it would be wise to wait a couple rounds before pulling the trigger.Especially if only one or two quarterbacks have been selected.

 

-An important part of value and using ADP to your advantage is creating your own player tiers. Take for example the tight end pool this year. Say in this hypothetical situation, you rank them in this order:

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jordan Reed
3. Greg Olsen
4. Delanie Walker
5. Travis Kelce
6. Coby Fleener
7. Tyler Eifert
8. Gary Barnidge
9. Ladarius Green
10. Zach Ertz
11. Jimmy Graham
12. Julius Thomas

 

These were the top 12 tight ends taken in the draft I conducted for this article. Knowing where they should fall as far as what round is important, but what is even more important than that is knowing which tight ends you feel comfortable starting every week. Say for example, you feel that any of the top 7 tight ends on the above list can be every-week starters. This is valuable information to consider for a few reasons: First is that you should always target players at the end of that tier. These players generally represent the best value in drafts. If you feel that Tyler Eifert can produce similar results to Greg Olsen or Delanie Walker, and you can get Eifert 2 or 3 rounds later than the others, then waiting to take Eifert is the best strategy. You could easily land 2 other quality starters while waiting instead of missing out on high-caliber players in earlier rounds.

 

This goes hand and hand with understanding positional runs. While targeting end of the tier players is a useful strategy for making value picks, this can easily backfire with a positional run. A positional run is where a few players of the same position get unexpectedly taken back-to-back-to-back. For example, say you are in round 5 and were waiting to take Eifert in round 7, then Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce, and Coby Fleener fly off the board. You are now in round 6, knowing that there are a few teams without tight ends between you and your 7^th round pick, and this may pressure you to take Eifert in round 6 instead of waiting until round 7. There is nothing wrong with this if you really think Eifert represents a solid jump in production over the remaining tight ends. It is sometimes better to take Eifert in that 6^th round position rather than be stuck picking up a new tight end off of the waiver wire each week in exchange for a player who may occupy your flex spot most weeks. This is especially true since many tight ends put up number similar to a WR2/WR3. This situation is also dependent on every other position, as the last of your starting RB/WR starting targets may be trickling off the board by this time. This is why I will repeatedly refer back to the first rule of being flexible.

 

-My final note on value is understanding the difference in value of different positions. I think this is the first year that the majority of fantasy owners are finally placing more value on a WR1 than a RB1. (though it has been trending that way for the past few years) For those who don’t know what I mean by WR1 and RB1, a WR1 is a wide receiver that is your top wide receiver, and generally referred to as being in the top 10 or 12 in the league. (Replace RB for WR to get the RB1 explanation) For the last few years, I have taken advantage of the public’s perceived value of RB1s and drafted 2 or 3 receivers in the first 3 rounds, ending up with 2 or 3 WR1s multiple years in a row, and I can probably say that this was among my biggest secrets to success for my last 3 championship teams. Last year I drafted Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins in the first 3 rounds and absolutely smoked my competition losing just 2 games all year and cruising to a fantasy championship. All three ended up as WR1’s and in the top 5 scoring for non-QBs. I’ll admit I didn’t know Hopkins would take the next step to becoming an elite receiver, but I felt pretty confident that Beckham Jr. and Jones would put up very solid WR1 stats. Even if you duplicated Hopkins 2014 stats I probably would still have had the best or 2^nd best team in the league.

 

Judging by the fact that these 3 players are all going in the first round this year, I will likely have to find other ways to build winning teams. This doesn’t mean I will stop valuing WR1s over RB1s, however. The statistics show that backs drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts have a much higher bust rate than WR1s and if one of the top few receivers is on the board in round 1 when I’m picking, you better bet he’ll be on my squad come week 1.

 

3. A great piece of advice for fantasy drafting is not being afraid to go against the grain while drafting. If you think a player is going to be better than his ADP, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if he falls to you. If a player who most people ridicule can be a solid contributor to your team, pick him up. Last year I won my fantasy championship with Eli Manning as my starting QB for the majority of the year, and I am not ashamed to say I targeted him in the later part of my draft. I spend most of my early picks filling out my roster and ignoring my QB knowing I could get solid production from Eli after the 9^th round. I never take a QB before round 7 because the drop off from the top few QB’s to the next tier is pretty slight. This is a pretty consistent trend from year to year as the NFL continues to transition to a pass-heavy league. There simply is enough quality quarterbacks to go around, which devalues the position as a whole. I have used this strategy to success for years. Last year, Eli Manning scored an average of 17.4 points per game. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers scored an average of 17.9. Rodgers was probably taken in the round 2-4 range consistently. In rounds 2 and 3 last year I took Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. The trade off of .5 points per game to take one of these two monsters was something I constantly laughed about to myself. I do it every year, yet owners always draft a few QB’s before round 7. Let them.

 

4. Here are some players and situations to watch out for:

 

–Sophomore slumps. They don’t always happen, but it is an added risk. Often after a year of watching tape, defenses can figure out how to slow down top rookies. The quarterback position is often susceptible to the second year slowdown. Third and fourth year players are much more likely to break out than second year players. This is especially true for wide receivers. I will keep coming back to DeAndre Hopkins, as last year (his third NFL campaign) was a breakout year despite everyone knowing how talented he was when got drafted back in 2013.

 

–Inconsistent players. My quintessential example is Desean Jackson. As an Eagle’s fan, I loved watching him torch helpless defensive backs for long touchdown’s while he was an Eagle. Unfortunately, his weekly fantasy output often depends on one play, which doesn’t always happen. If he doesn’t catch that long touchdown, often he isn’t worth a fantasy start and that inconsistency can be maddening as a fantasy owner. I usually avoid these players like the plague. Watch out for Will Fuller who I see as a very similar player. Another example is Torrey Smith. I would rather target players who get consistent production, and provide a base level of fantasy production that is usually what I consider “starter worthy.” For RB/WR I expect at least 10 points per week, and for QB’s I expect 15.

 

Take note of 2 examples here that put up the same numbers on average during a 7-week span. They both averaged 11.86 points per game. If a player’s weekly fantasy output looks like example A: 10, 14, 8, 17, 12, 9, 13, that is what I consider fairly consistent production. If a player’s weekly output looks like example B: 10, 6, 19, 4, 3, 20, 21 this is what I consider inconsistent production. The reason being that example A will never lose you a week because of his production. He May not carry your team in any given week, but if you have a roster full of consistent producers, none of your players will have to carry your team in a given week, and any big games will be a very pleasant surprise and not the expectation. Example B may carry your team 3 of those weeks, but in 3 others he may cost your team the victory. Plus, do you really want the headache of trying to predict when those big games will come?

 

–The dreaded running-back-by-committee (RBBC) Running backs who carry the vast majority of the workload are an ever-dying breed in the NFL. This places a premium on the few who still are. This doesn’t mean you can’t get value out of players in a committee, but always look to draft versatile players who will get the most attention in an offense. By my count, there are less than 10 backs in the NFL who would be considered full-time starters. Most of these will go in the first 3 rounds. If you grab one after that, you probably got a huge steal.

 

–Patriot’s running backs. You may think I’m joking, but the last time the Pats had a back worth a high fantasy pick it was Corey Dillon back in the early 2000’s. (I won’t count the one random season Stevan Ridley had a respectable season because it could just have easily been Shane Vereen, who many projected to have the better season that year. Then of course Ridley faded into a nobody) The patriots find players that they can exploit single talents better than any team in the league. Look no further than Legarrette Blount (battering ram) and Dion Lewis. (jitterbug pass catcher) Both players will probably put up decent numbers, but the way the Patriots change their game plan from week-to-week with little predictability, Blount could have 20 carries one game and 2 the next without notice. It’s just a headache that I usually choose to avoid. This would fall under both the RBBC category and inconsistent play category, which is why I think it is worth mentioning as a stand alone category.

 

–Rookies. I am not saying avoid them completely, but don’t ride the hype train. Rookie performances like Odell Beckham Jr.’s are rare. Often they can be a good value if they live up to hype early and you draft them late, but the only rookie you should consider drafting high this year is Ezekiel Elliot. He is an exception for a few reasons: 1. He is a top-5 talent in the NFL at the running back position. Players like him only get drafted every few years. The most recent examples are Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson. While he has a different style than those two, he is ultra-talented and very versatile. 2. He landed in a situation with arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Elliot is being mocked in the first round, and I find it difficult to argue that ADP. I think we can all be fairly confident that barring injury or some crazy Jerry Jones-ism, the rookie will rush for over 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns and be featured in the Cowboys offense. That’s his floor, not his ceiling, and that is round 1-3 material. The reason to draft him in round 1 is the hype. If he falls to round 2, he may be too hard to pass up, but drafting a player who has never taken an NFL snap in round 1 is also a risk. Don’t draft any rookie WR’s high, especially this year. It’s likely you can find any of them on the waiver wire mid-season when a few will begin adjust to NFL defenses and put together a few nice games. I outlined a few mid-late round rookie targets in my previous articles.

 

–The 3^rd string WR on a team, with expectations to start him consistently. There are exceptions to this rule as with every rule. John Brown managed a 1,000 yard seasons as the Cardinals 3^rd wide receiver, but My intention is to draft players that can perform better than that. I draft with the intention to fill my WR 3 spot with a WR1 or 2. This is because of the value I place on WR’s. I honestly try and have all my WR’s be the top option on their team if I can. This year’s example might be Travis Benjamin. He is likely behind Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson on the Charger’s roster, yet some owner’s will likely take him with intentions to start him as a WR2, WR3, or flex option. While I encourage having as much depth as possible, don’t let Benjamin be your best WR2 starter option. You can likely do better. Depending on the offense, I would even avoid WR2’s. Prior to last year, Jermaine Kearse was Seattle’s WR2 in a run heavy offense and was utterly irrelevant in fantasy football that year.

 

–Handcuff running backs. To me, unless you have the power to predict injuries, drafting backup running backs is a very low percentage gamble that usually ends up with that pick on the waiver wire week 2 or 3. Yet some people will handcuff their prized RB1 with a round 8-11 pick. Don’t waste a pick on a player like that. Take the upside of another player, and pick up players during the season that become valuable as the season progresses.

 

5. Another important, but not always mentioned thing to keep in mind is knowing the rules of your league, and it should really go without saying. If you play PPR, players projected to make a lot of catches are put at a premium, and this should reflect your draft strategy.

6. Sleepers to target: Old faces in new places, new offensive approach, players coming     off injury and larger opportunities are the 4 situations to keep in mind when targeting sleepers. A few layers who fit these categories are (not that they are necessarily wise choices) Rueben Randle, (old face new place) Ryan Tannehill, (new offensive approach) Kelvin Benjamin, (injured last year) and Donte Moncrieff. (Larger opportunity) Sleepers don’t have to be late round picks either. If Andrew Luck goes back to being Andrew Luck, Moncrief is the number 2 receiving option and likely in line for a pretty big year if he can take advantage of the opportunity. The only question mark is lack of a proven season. He is a prime breakout candidate as a third-year player who will finally be a WR2 on the Colts offense, and probably worth a WR2 draft grade.

 

This concludes the first part of the article where I go over my strategies for mock drafting. Stay tuned for next week when I will publish a round-by-round strategy guide where you can see these rules in action in an actual mock draft, along with additional insights. Looking forward to seeing you back here next week!

Last year, David Johnson, Tyler Lockett, and Stefon Diggs all became fantasy relevant rookies. What do they all have in common? None of them were not drafted in the first round of the 2015 NFL draft. Year after year mid and late round picks step up and become fantasy relevant as rookies. Even some undrafted players go on to become fantasy stars. (just look at the career of Arian Foster)

 

To see the fantasy impact of the first round, read my previous article, but this one is all about picks after round 1 and how they could impact your fantasy season.

 

Quick tips:

 

-Watch out for all of the rookie running backs. I stated this in my last article when I said Ezekiel Elliot should be a first round pick this year, but running back is essentially the same in college as it is in the pros. With a shorter shelf life than basically any other position in the league, rookies often get started immediately and have great success. Any running back who gets carries in the NFL has the potential to hold fantasy value, so you should get to know as many of them as you can.

 

-Also keep a close watch on any undrafted free agents who make a name for themselves early in the offseason. Every year there is at least one UFA who gets some pre-season hype.

 

With all of that said, here are some names to know and monitor through training camps:

 

Potential Rookie Stars:

 

Sterling Shepard: WR New York Giants:

 

This offseason, two significant things happened to the Giants receiving core: First, the G-men let Rueben Randle sign with the rivaling Philadelphia Eagles. Second, Victor Cruz was declared 100% healthy. Even if Cruz returns to the form that saw him amass over 1,500 receiving yards back in 2011, he will have to prove that to the team. While 2^nd round pick Shepard will have to do the same, he should have no trouble finding his way in the Giants offense that saw Randle catch 8 scores last year. I have no doubt in my mind that the Giants offense could support Cruz, Shepard, and Odell Beckham Jr. as fantasy relevant wide receivers. At full strength, OBJ is obviously a WR1, Cruz a WR2, and Shepard could even sneak into the WR3 conversation in fantasy. If Shepard finds himself in the #2 role on the Giants’ offense for any reason, he is a surefire WR3 with WR2 upside.

 

Tyler Boyd WR Cincinnati Bengals:

 

I absolutely loved this pick for the Bengals. The void left by the departures of Muhammad Sanu and Marvin Jones certainly could not have been completely filled by the Brandon LaFell, signing and Boyd should be an instant upgrade. Once considered a first round pick, the former Pittsburgh standout broke Larry Fitzgerald’s school records before deciding to go pro. Cincinnati is the perfect place for him to land where he should have no trouble winning the starting wideout position opposite A.J. Green. Cincinnati has established starters basically everywhere else on offense, so he can be brought along as slowly if needed. I would expect him to hit the ground running and be a WR3 right off the bat, and don’t be surprised if he puts up WR2 numbers after around week 8 when he can acclimate to the NFL game a bit.

 

Demarcus Robinson WR Kansas City Chiefs

 

Outside of Jeremy Maclin, the Chiefs WR depth chart leaves a lot to be desired. If you got rid of all of the off-the-field issues Robinson had at Florida, we might have seen him come off the board a few rounds sooner. With that said, the Chiefs are a stable organization with a head coach (Andy Reid) who has proven he can handle players with character concerns. (Just look at last year’s first round pick and NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters) If this 4^th rounder can win the 2^nd WR spot, he could easily step in as a WR3 with plenty of upside. He is absolutely worth a late round flier in your draft, especially if he has generated a little excitement by the time your draft rolls around.

 

Devontae Booker RB Denver Broncos:

 

The Broncos had trouble running the ball all last year, and It would be foolish to think coach Kubiak has confidence in C.J. Anderson to carry the load next year. Enter Devontae Booker, an all around talent with starter potential slipped to the Broncos and will have a chance to earn reps early. He is easily the most talented back in Denver, and with a good camp, could even win the starting job. Definitely monitor this situation going into your draft, but don’t be surprised if Anderson gets picked before Booker on name value, but Booker ends up being the more productive back by season’s end. Training camp and pre-season will determine his average draft position, but know his name and grab him when you can. This offense isn’t moving the ball much through the air with whomever the starting QB is and at some point this season, Booker should be the focal point of this offense. A looming concern is that this turns into the dreaded running back-by-committee (RBBC) and nobody in the backfield is more than a low-end RB2.

 

Paul Perkins RB New York Giants:

 

The second Giant to make this list, Perkins is a shifty back who should earn time immediately as a change of pace back. The backfield is crowded here, but someone will get cut, and none of the names really scream “starter” on this offense. If Perkins gets hot, he could easily be a RB2 or better depending on his workload. Definitely monitor how Ben McAdoo decides to split carries, and if Perkins ends up on the waiver wire, keep a tab on him all season.

 

Players to monitor in training camps and throughout the season:

 

Hunter Henry TE San Diego Chargers:

 

Antonio Gates will be 36 at the start of the season, and Ladarius Green is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. He is the future starter at this position; the only question is how soon will he get his shot? Green was somewhat productive last year as the 2^nd tight end, but can Henry up those numbers?

 

Derrick Henry RB Tennessee Titans:

 

Demarco Murray has only made it through 16 games once in his career. The Heisman Trophy winner will likely be a hot waiver wire pickup at some point.

 

Kenyan Drake RB Miami Dolphins:

 

A very talented back, but how will Adam Gase decide to split up caries with Drake, Jay Ajayi, and others? Keep a close watch on this situation going into your draft.

 

Michael Thomas WR New Orleans Saints:

 

Cooks and Snead are the starters, but there is room for a 3^rd productive wide receiver in any offense lead by Drew Brees and Sean Payton. He is probably only worth a look if one of the two starters gets hurt though.

 

Alex Collins / C.J. Prosise RB’s Seattle Seahawks:

 

Both backs are talented, but as long as Thomas Rawls is healthy to start the year (which is no guarantee) he will be the starter. If Rawls were to miss time, one of these backs may get the nod as the de-facto starter. I think Collins fits the Seahawks approach better, but Prosise was picked earlier. This should be an interesting training camp battle at the very least.

 

Moritz Böhringer WR Minnesotta Vikings:

 

This guy is an athletic freak who has been called “the German Randy Moss,” which is fitting that he landed with the Vikings. Laquon Treadwell will be a solid starter right away, and Stefon Diggs will look to improve on his solid rookie campaign, but don’t sleep on Böhringer. If he adapts quickly to the NFL game, he could become a star in a hurry. Don’t draft him unless he starts making significant moves up the depth chart, but he is an interesting dynasty league stash.

 

Keith Marshall RB Washington Redskins:

 

Marshall wowed at the combine with sub 4.4 forty time, but with a lack of proven production and other talented backs, no team took him until round 7. Washington’s current starter is second year pro Matt Jones, who had some fumbling issues last year. Marshall’s speed alone will give Washington enough reasons to consider giving him some reps to see what he makes of the NFL game. If Jones struggles, Marshall could come in and light it up with the potential to score on any carry.

 

 

 

So day 1 of the 2016 NFL draft is in the books, and fantasy owners will want to know how this draft affects their draft. I’ll try and reserve my comments on how teams in the first round drafted, because reality and fantasy are two very different worlds. This draft was much more about reality, evidenced by the fact that only 8 of the 31 picks last night were offensive skill-positions. (QB, RB, WR) The 2016 draft will be remembered for it’s defensive depth, and going into the day 2 of the draft, there is still a ton of starting defensive talent out there.

 

With that said, we can let the NFL front offices worry more about their defense’s because in fantasy football, offense is the name of the game. The fantasy world just welcomed some new talent, and it’s never too early to start planning for your next draft. Here are some players that just got drafted and will change the fantasy landscape:

 

Ezekiel Elliot: RB Dallas Cowboys

 

This should be the pick that affects the top of fantasy drafts the most this summer. The last 2 seasons, the Cowboys have had the top offensive line in the NFL and have had Demarco Murray rush for over 1,800 yards and Darren McFadden rushing for over 1,000 yards despite not truly starting until about week 7. Elliot should fall somewhere between production-wise, as he is easily as talented (if not more talented) than both players. Running backs have arguably the easiest learning curve of any position transitioning from college, so my money has Elliot as a sure-fire first round fantasy option. He could easily be the top player in fantasy football from day 1 and for years to come. If Tony Romo stays healthy and keeps defense’s honest, Elliot should put up at least 1,500 total yards and his fair share of touchdowns. I would expect Alfred Morris to pilfer a few scores, and McFadden to give him a breather, but you don’t take a back 4^th overall without playing him as your full-time starter right out of the gate.

 

Corey Coleman: WR Cleveland Browns

 

Coleman is a bit raw, but very talented. Any highlight real will affirm his athleticism. The Browns need a lot of things, and without Travis Benjamin, receiver was definitely among primary needs. Credit Cleveland for trading back twice to get a gifted player and more draft picks because the fate of this team for the next decade arguably falls on hitting on at least 50% of the picks they have in the next 2 years. Back to fantasy: Coleman isn’t Josh Gordon (which is a good thing and a bad thing) but he will be their number 1 receiver from day 1. If Benjamin can put up 966 yards and 5 scores with Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, and Austin Davis as his starting QB’s then I think Coleman can do at least as well with RGIII as the projected starter. I respect Hue Jackson more than any coach Cleveland has had in…well…maybe since they re-joined the NFL, so I trust that Coleman will be worth a mid-late round flier with high upside in your next draft.

 

Will Fuller: WR Houston Texans

 

The Texans took Fuller ahead of Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell. I think both are more complete receivers than Fuller, but that won’t stop Fuller from taking Houston’s offense to new levels. I don’t think it’s farfetched to compare Fuller to DeSean Jackson because of their size and speed. If the Texans think that last year’s third round pick Jaelen Strong can turn into a player comparable to Treadwell, then this pick looks like one that can propel the franchise into the thick of the AFC playoffs. Houston is set on Defense, and now it has its QB and RB of the future. Hopkins will finally have receivers that can move the chains if he is double-teamed. Jackson put up over 900 yards and a pair of scores his rookie season, and I think it’s fair to expect that Fuller can match that production as long as Brock Osweiler is up to that task. Personally, I hate players that rely on the big play in fantasy, and in his inaugural NFL season, I think that is where the Notre Dame product will find his niche. He is a boom-or-bust play, worthy of a waiver-wire pickup if he gets hot at any point and starts to prove he is a legit number 2 receiver. Don’t draft him with expectations greater than the occasional flex play.

 

Honorable mentions:

 

Even with the defensive heavy draft, there are some names that fantasy owners should keep in mind. The defenses of the Raiders, Jaguars, Giants and Bears got major face-lifts in free agency, and all 4 of these teams’ drafted top defensive players in round 1. All except the Bears got major upgrades to their back ends, and Chicago now has their most promising linebacker corps since Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher roamed the midway. Expect all 4 teams to have D/ST’s that are at least worthy of a streaming start, if not more.

 

I also don’t know how anyone is going to score points on the Cardinals this year. When you add Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche to a team that will get a healthy Honey Badger back, you get a downright nasty defense. With the Broncos, Panthers, Patriots, and Seahawks all looking like teams making lateral movements at best since the season ended, the Cardinals are pushing to be Super Bowl favorites early. There really aren’t any major holes on this team, and they will likely take the best player available approach for the rest of the draft. Take their D/ST in the top 3 and start them every week. The league has been put on notice: Fear the red birds.

 

Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson are both very talented, but find themselves in situations where they will not be asked to succeed as soon as many first round picks are. Treadwell has #1 receiver talent, but with the presence of Stefon Diggs, Jarius Wright, and Charles Johnson, the former Ole Miss Rebel will need to earn his spot on the depth chart. (Which really shouldn’t be a long-term issue) The more concerning problem is landing in a run-first offense with all-world running back Adrian Peterson and downfield-challenged Teddy Bridgewater. Even if Treadwell gets a top 2 spot on the receiver pecking order, expect his numbers to be reserved because of the offense he plays in, especially as a rookie. He is an interesting dynasty league option however as many scouts and draft analysts pegged him as the best receiver in the class with the potential to be a faster Alshon Jeffery.

 

Doctson has a better QB and a more pass-happy offense than Treadwell, but Washington already has 3 receiving threats (DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon) that will take priority over him. The Redskins needed defense, but Jackson and Garcon could both be gone in 2 years, so the Redskins saw a future need and a talented player to grab and develop. Don’t expect much in year 1 fantasy-wise.

 

Other notables:

 

Quarterbacks went 1 and 2 overall this year, as they did last year. Jared Goff will come in and start right away for the Rams. Los Angeles is a defensive team with arguably the most promising running back in the NFL. His job will be primarily to hand it off to Todd Gurley and make the best of one of the worst supporting casts in the league. Goff will be fantasy relevant one day…if the Rams ever find any receiving talent. Don’t bother drafting him until that happens.

 

Carson Wentz falls into an interesting situation. If the Eagles can throw a bucket of cold water on Sam Bradford and get him to stop crying like the overpriced baby that he is, the situation is actually set up very well for Wentz and the Eagles to succeed long-term. Bradford should start, and finish the year as the starter as long as he stays healthy. (which he hasn’t ever done) This would give time for Wentz to sit and watch how the pro-game is played, since he hasn’t even played against top talent in college. Then next year throw him out there with a young team on the rise with a supporting cast that could grow into something with more positive developments from players like Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. This pick can’t even begin to be evaluated until probably 2018, and that is the earliest you should expect any fantasy returns.

 

As I live in Denver, I guess I should note that Paxton Lynch is basically Brock Osweiler, except several years developmentally behind. Not that the Broncos had great QB play during last year’s Super Bowl run, but I wouldn’t expect either Lynch or captain butt-fumble to earn a Super Bowl appearance even with the talent they still have on the other side of the ball. Lynch shouldn’t be drafted in fantasy for at least a year, and a year of starting would help his learning curve on a team that will not need to rely on offense to win every week.

 

The draft slide of Laremy Tunsil was the story of last night, and while it could reportedly cost him about $13 million, it wasn’t as bad as the slide of La’el Collins last year who went from first round lock to undrafted. The Dolphins got one of the best tackles the draft has seen in a decade, and with a solid mentor or two, he could set his mind right and become a future hall of famer. He’s that good. The problem is he is young, obviously has a horrible agent, and no head between his shoulders. Living in a state where marijuana is legal, and players like Von Miller can be caught smoking weed yet still can win a Super Bowl MVP a few years later, this looks like a great steal for the Dolphins as long as they can get him on the straight and narrow for his playing career. This should benefit Ryan Tannehill the most who has been under siege from pass-rushers since being drafted in 2012. If the Dolphins can find and correctly utilize a running back, this offense could finally take off under new coach Adam Gase. Watch the next few rounds tonight, because it could very well propel this team to new heights.

Arizona Cardinals:

There aren’t many ways to end a season that are more brutal than what the Cardinals had to endure in the NFC championship game. Losing 49-15 after having a regular season record of 13-3 doesn’t usually happen. You can be sure that the Cards will be out for revenge after that smack down at the end of the year.

This is one of the most complete teams in the league, loaded with fantasy stars, so expect another playoff run, and be sure to grab a few Cardinals in your draft.

Starting off with the QB, Carson Palmer saw major career resurgence last season throwing for 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns to only 11 picks. At 36 years old, this was easily his best season he has ever had as a pro. When you look at the offense around him, it is easy to see why. The line is one of the best, if not the best in the league, so Palmer usually has superb protection and an outstanding run game. The losses of guard Jonathan Cooper and tackle Bobbie Massie are softened with the addition of former All-Pro guard Evan Mathis and the presence of last year’s first round pick, tackle DJ Humphries. His receivers are superb as well. Take Palmer as one of the top 5 QB’s and watch him tear it up again.

Larry Fitzgerald experienced quite the renaissance as well. 2015 was Fitzgerald’s first 1000 yard season since 2011. Fitz wasn’t the only pass-catcher with over 1,000 yards on the year; John Brown squeaked by the milestone with 1,003 yards on the year to go along with 7 touchdowns. Even Michael Floyd got in on the fun with 849 yards and 6 scores. There were plenty of Carson Palmer missiles to go around, and that made for 3 fantasy relevant receivers last season. Fitzgerald played like a WR1, which was a pleasant surprise for all who drafted him. I would see if you can grab him as more of a WR2 because of his age, but he may go as early as round 2 in drafts because well, he’s Larry Fitzgerald.

John Brown made a lot of big plays en-route to his best season yet. He played like a low end WR2. With all of the moving parts in this offense, Brown won’t consistently put up big numbers. If you can use him as more of a flex/WR3 play, you will probably get better value from him.

Floyd is also a big-play threat, but he gets targeted less than Brown does. He isn’t much more than a bye week fill-in. There is even more speed and skill at the receiver position, but because of the abundance of quality players at this position, more than half of them aren’t fantasy relevant.

The running back position is another deep one as well. There is the Johnson’s, (Chris and David) Andre Ellington, and even Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan taylor get some carries here and there. The best back on this team is David Johnson. Just watch the guy play and it is blatantly obvious that this kid was built to move the football. I think head coach Bruce Arians got that message loud and clear when he averaged almost 160 yards per game in weeks 12-14 where he got to start due to injuries. The Cardinals elected to re-sign Chris Johnson, who was yet another veteran with a comeback season, running for over 800 yards before getting injured. He was forced to miss the last 4 games, which is where we saw David Johnson run wild. Bruce Arians is one of the most respected coaches in the league, and what I would expect this time share to look like is this: David Johnson gets about 65% of the carries, Chris Johnson gets about 20%, and The other 15% is split between Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor, and Kerwynn Williams. I am guessing that either Taylor or Williams (or both) will get cut, but Ellington should command most of that last 15% anyway. Ellington should also get some good 3^rd down opportunities as well. This is definitely a time share to keep a close watch on in training camp and pre-season to see how Bruce Arians wants to divvy up the carries. In all likelihood, the starter will be a 1^st or 2^nd round pick, and that starter will probably be David Johnson.

Until a tight end proves to be a consistent receiving threat, none of them on this team should be drafted.

This defense, like the Seahawks is one of the best in the league. With the addition of Chandler Jones, this squad could be even better, which is scary. There are only minor weaknesses on this team, and none worth pointing out. Draft this defense, expect to play them every week and get excellent results. This team is in a position to draft the best player available in every round. There are no big holes anywhere on the team, and this upcoming draft should be about the future of the team.

 

Los Angeles Rams:

Bye St. Louis. Hello, L.A. This team will move down to a city that is hopefully less accepting of head coach Jeff Fisher than St. Louis. The belief that he is one of the most overrated coaches in the league is not a view that is unique to me. Fisher has not had a winning season since 2008 back when he was with the Titans and Chris Johnson was a rookie. Maybe now that the Rams will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks, the world will be able to see that Fisher isn’t coaching his team to compete with the modern nuances of the NFL. His defense looks great as it has since he has been here, but his offense is so poor that it doesn’t seem to matter how good the defense plays. Case and point: He named Case Keenum the unquestioned starter at quarterback for the upcoming season….that is until today when the Rams threw all caution to the wind and traded for the number 1 overall pick in this years draft.

According to multiple reports, the Rams gave away their 1^st round pick (15 overall) as well as both of their 2^nd round picks, their 3^rd round pick, and their 1^st round and 3^rd round picks next year. The Rams will also reportedly receive the Titans 4^th and 6^th round picks in the deal. That is one heck of a haul for the Titans, who will have the opportunity to add a lot of young talent to their roster, and in exchange the Rams will likely take Quarterback prospect Jared Goff out of Cal. I know the Rams needed a quarterback badly, but as of right now this move looks like it could benefit the Titans way more than the Rams. Los Angeles has no receiving threats unless you count Tavon Austin who is more of a gadget player than a go-to receiving option. Seeing as the highest pick the Rams will have in the next 2 years aside from the 1^st overall pick is a 2^nd round pick next year, the opportunities to add receiving talent look slim. The move could pay off a few years down the road, but right now I am calling this a win for the Titans, who only have to hit on half of the picks they received to make this deal look good for them.

The only player on offense you should own in fantasy is Todd Gurley. (And actually maybe Tavon Austin, but we will get to him later) As a player in a vacuum, it is hard not to love Gurley. A lot of people have called him the most gifted back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson was drafted back in 2007. This may be true, but is he worth a first round draft pick on your team? Let’s dig a little deeper into his play last year and the team around him to see if he is a worthy investment. So last year Gurley played in 13 games and rushed for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry. He also added 21 catches for 188 yards. The numbers look pretty good so far. When I take a look at the game logs, I am a little less impressed. Let’s just exclude the first game that he played in against Pittsburgh where he had 6 carries for 9 yards. This was the first game back from an ACL Injury, and there are a lot of nerves that go into stepping back onto the field after an injury like that. Then, he showed why he was the 10^th overall pick in the draft over the next 4 games in which he averaged 141.5 yards per game, and had 3 scores. He had a run of at least 48 yards in each of those games, showing off that long speed.

Then the Rams lost their next 5 games, and couldn’t put up more than 18 points in any of those games despite 3 more Gurley scores. Over this stretch, the rest of the league seemed to figure out that if you stack the box with 8 defenders, the Rams aren’t much of a threat to toss it over the top. For that stretch, Gurley only averaged 3.29 yards per carry, and 52 yards per game. I will cede the fact that some of these teams were among the league leaders at defending the run, but in his 2^nd career game Gurley ran for 146 yards against the Arizona Cardinals who were 6^th in the league vs. the run. This could be because teams feared the secondary, but the Arizona secondary has excellent range and they help with the run maybe better than any team in the league outside of the Seahawks.

Anyhow, Gurley had one of his biggest games of the season following this 5 game skid, and pushed the Rams to a 3 game win streak to finish out the year. The season was a good stretch, bad stretch, good stretch sandwich. It’s the bad stretch that worries me a little, and I think it is more related to the Ram’s inability to pass the ball. Luckily for Gurley, the Rams have one of the best front 7’s in the league, and an above average secondary. This defense keeps games close, which allows them to run Gurley into the ground. On volume and talent alone, Gurley should be worth a first round pick. But is he in the right situation to be the first overall pick? How about the 2^nd overall pick? Well you will have to wait until my fantasy mock drafts come out in the pre-season, but because of his division and lack of any other options on offense to take the heat off, there are likely better options to take the top spot in your draft.

The Rams D/ST finished as a fringe starter last year. They were a great play when the matchup was right, having owned them for parts on the season myself. They are worth drafting, but not until the last couple of rounds, but don’t be afraid to stream a defense some weeks when they pull a strong offensive team.

I’d like to talk shortly about Tavon Austin now. Austin had an interesting year because he had an equal amount of carries and catches. Exactly 52 each. He had almost identical yardage totals for rushing and receiving as well. He totaled 907 combined yards and 9 scores plus a return touchdown. Those 10 total scores are what made him valuable. Austin is an electric player who is capable of taking it the distance on any play, but it’s hard to rely on him for consistent points. He is not a bad flex option, but expecting 10 touchdowns from a player like him year in and year out is a lot to ask. Percy Harvin never hit double-digit touchdowns in a season, and I need to see consistent proof before I believe that Austin can do it again.

 

San Francisco 49ers:

This team continues it’s quite magnificent fall from glory. From 2011 to 2013, this team had 3 straight years with playoff wins. Unfortunately, an 8-8 record sounds like a pipe dream. This team doesn’t have a lot to be excited about at the moment. This is a similar situation to the Los Angeles Ram’s situation. The team actually has high-potential players on all three levels of the defense, yet not only does the offense put it in bad situations, it can’t seem to play up to it’s own potential. The defense is worth monitoring on the waiver wire, but probably shouldn’t be drafted in fantasy.

The ongoing soap opera this offseason for the 49ers has been the question of will they unload Colin Kaepernick? There was a trade in place to send him to the quarterback-desperate Broncos, but that didn’t pan out because the Broncos wouldn’t pay his salary. Why anyone would want him in the first place is a mystery to me. I was actually intrigued to see if Chip Kelly could utilize Kaepernick’s running ability to revitalize his downward-spiraling career. After the aforementioned trade that landed their division rivals at the top of this years draft, the chances the 49ers draft a quarterback with the intention to start him immediately have significantly diminished.

The 49ers are yet another team that remained quiet this free agency period, and in doing so they leave the status of the team to the upcoming draft. The 49ers have drafted fairly well over the past decade, their main problem being a lack of a quarterback and receiving options.

The only real fantasy option on the 49ers is running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde has yet to get the chance to really establish himself in the NFL. His rookie season he spent behind celebrated running back Frank Gore. Last year he spent half of the season injured. The offensive line isn’t what it was when it propelled the 49ers to the Super Bowl just a few years ago. Without staple guards Mike Iupati and Alex Boone, this team’s ground game will be deficient. With no offensive weapons outside of Hyde to speak ill of, this teams offense (as of now) will have to rely on Hyde the way the Ram’s offense will rely on Todd Gurley. The thing is that Hyde isn’t Gurley, and therefore isn’t worth a spot in the top 2 maybe 3 rounds. He could be worth a gamble in round 4 if the 49ers can improve their offensive line enough by the time week 1 rolls around. I like his value better after round 4.

Seattle Seahawks:

As long as Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are getting paychecks from the Seahawks, Seattle will be home to a competitive football team. That tough defense doesn’t hurt either. The problem is that the Seahawks have some big holes to fill before they get their Super Bowl aspirations back.

When Russel Okung decided to become his own agent and sign with the Denver Broncos, the mass exodus of anybody with talent on the Seahawks offensive line seemed to be complete. The Seahawks struggled, especially in the first half of the season, with handling pressure on the quarterback. Luckily for Seattle, Russell Wilson took his game to a new level in the 2^nd half of the season. He and receiver Doug Baldwin were elite fantasy options from week 8 onward. With Okung gone, offensive like should be the Seahawks primary concern in the draft.

With that said, offensive line isn’t the only hole on this team. Thomas Rawls looked excellent when he played last year, but without Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks may want to find some insurance in case Rawls was a one-year wonder. The defense, while very good, is not as complete as it was when it carried the team to 2 straight Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. The depth behind Richard Sherman and Jeremy Lane at corner needs to be addressed, and the spot vacated by linebacker Bruce Irvin also needs to be figured out. I would guess the draft would provide options for all of these needs.

Fantasy wise, the first Seahawk off the board should be Thomas Rawls. The rookie back averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game in which he was given more than 15 carries. The sample size was small, (6 games) but given that he will be given every opportunity to fill in the role vacated by Lynch, he should be drafted in the first 2 rounds without a doubt. This is especially true if the Seahawks can get any kind of offensive line upgrade.

Russell Wilson or Doug Baldwin should be next off the board for this team. I would say Wilson is the safer pick seeing as Baldwin only has half a season of elite performance under his belt where Wilson has at least a couple seasons of quality work under his belt. Wilson is a top-5 fantasy QB, so expect him to be drafted in the top 5 rounds. Baldwin is going to be a tricky player to draft. I personally wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting him before the 4^th round, and maybe even later than that given that his late season surge came out of basically nowhere. He has always been a talented receiver, but the Seahawks don’t force-feed any receivers the ball in their run-heavy offense….or at least they didn’t. I would expect the Seahawks to become more versatile, but expecting elite production from Baldwin may be far-fetched. I would draft him with the expectation of playing him as a flex option and hoping for better.

Jimmy Graham is another Seahawk worth drafting, and I would expect a bounce-back season after his first season with the team seemed to be more of a “get to know you” season. Graham is arguably the 2^nd most talented tight end in the league, and deserves to be a top-10 tight end drafted. I think rounds 4-8 are a good place to draft him depending on how many teams are in your league and where other tight ends start getting picked. He should probably be drafted after Gronk, Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Reed, but after that I wouldn’t call you crazy to make Graham the next tight end off the board. I would say his draft stock should be around the same as Travis Kelce’s.

The Seattle D/ST should also be drafted as a starter, but as with all defenses, in the later rounds of the draft. They are definitely worth starting on a regular basis, but I wouldn’t draft them as the first defense off the board that perennially gets overrated and picked in rounds 8-10. Use those rounds to add some solid depth to your team, or pick some high-risk, high-reward prospects.

 

 

So it’s March, and most fantasy fanatics won’t even be doing mock drafts until at least June, if not a few months later. We still have the NFL Draft, training camps, and plenty of time for injuries to happen. With that said, there is no better time than the present to start preparations right?

Here is my unreasonably premature 2-round mock draft for the upcoming fantasy season. The draft is based off of standard rules in a 12 team league where somewhere between 0 and 1 points are given per reception.

ROUND 1

1.

The pick: Antonio Brown WR Pittsburgh Steelers

Reasoning: Well the stats speak for themselves. This is clearly the best fantasy option in football with Big Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the football. Here are a few reasons why he was so ungodly last year: Nine games of over 100 yards. Ten scores. Seven games with at least 9 catches. Six games with over 20 fantasy points.

This is the year that wide receivers will finally get taken before running backs consistently in the first few picks of the draft. Brown scored almost 2 more points per game than the highest scoring running back, and he wasn’t the only receiver to do so.

2.

The pick: Odell Beckham Jr. WR New York Giants

Reasoning: There is reason to argue that Beckham is even more talented than Brown, but because of his hot-headedness, he was forced to miss the fantasy championship game in most leagues, which I am sure pissed off more owners than just me last year. He is 1A here, and his 13 touchdowns and eight 100 yards games are why. If you took him first overall, you could very well end up with the most points in fantasy next year.

3.

The pick: Julio Jones WR Atlanta Falcons

Reasoning: While Matt Ryan decided to stop playing quality football, Julio Jones kept putting up 136 catches for the 2^nd best receiving yardage total in single season history. He is the top option on the offense like Beckham and Brown, and is 1C to the other two. These are the 3 best receivers in football without question, and they should go 1-3 in drafts. If any of them fall to number 4, you got a steal.

4.

The pick: Adrian Peterson RB Minnesota Vikings

Reasoning: Sure Devonta Freeman led the league in fantasy points for backs last year, but he tailed off at the end of the season while Peterson remained consistent. Forget his age, he is the most talented back in the league, and the Vikings offense runs through him. He may not finish as the top back, but he is the least risky of any running back and will almost definitely finish top 5 barring injury. You can’t ask for much more than that.

5.

The pick: Le’Veon Bell RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Reasoning: He is so versatile. He puts up WR2 numbers combined with RB1 numbers, which is damn near a cheat code. The only reason I put him behind Peterson is that he spent most of last season on IR because of injury, and re-injury is always a risk with a back who gets as many touches as him. At number 5, he is probably a steal, and could easily end up with more points than any skill position player in the league like he almost did 2 years ago. (Demarco Murray took the top spot) DeAngelo Williams also proved capable while Bell was out, so the Steelers could give him some extra carries to keep Bell fresh.

6.

The pick: Todd Gurley RB Los Angeles Rams

Reasoning: The Rams will run their offense through Gurley again this year, and in year 2 with the team, expect monster results. It would be nice if the Rams had any semblance of a pass game to keep defenses honest, but his talent will win out more often than not, and his touchdown capability makes him worth the pick by itself. Expect a few games where defenses throw extra defenders in the box and make the Rams beat them through the air which will make Gurley’s output touchdown dependant.

7.

The pick: DeAndre Hopkins WR Houston Texans

Reasoning: Consistency. Hopkins only had less than 5 catches in any game last year once. He is just as talented as the top 3 wide receivers in this draft, and the only thing that holds him back is QB play. If Brock Osweiler is the upgrade over Brian Hoyer that Houston expects he will be, Hopkins could easily finish at the top of the league in yards and catches. The big reason I have him down at 7 instead of at 4 is that I think Houston will have a much better run game with Lamar Miller, and won’t be forced to throw it to Hopkins 192 times.

8.

The pick: Jamaal Charles RB Kansas City Chiefs

Reasoning: He is still one of the top-5 running backs in this league. He is 29 years old and coming off of an injury, but do you really expect the Chiefs to light it up in the passing game with Alex Smith? No, they will run Charles into the ground and he will get as many if not more targets in the passing game than any other back in the league. Expect a nice rebound year.

9

The pick: Allen Robinson WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Reasoning: There is no Penn State bias here I swear. When you score 14 touchdowns, you have arrived in this League. Robinson made big plays week in and week out, and I would expect that to continue into next year. I would expect a slight dip in numbers because I expect the run game to improve, but not enough to warrant making Robinson anything less than the number one option in this suddenly high-flying offense.

10.

The pick: Brandon Marshall WR New York Jets

Reasoning: This pick is largely dependent on the Jets having a reliable quarterback under center. If they re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, I would probably put him ahead of Robinson, but since that hasn’t happened at the time this mock draft was concocted, he gets the number 10 spot. Even though he will be 32 years old this year, he is still more athletic than 98% of receivers in this league. He had ten games over 100 yards last year and tied with Robinson and Doug Baldwin for the league lead in touchdowns .(14) Expect the yards and touchdowns to come all year again for Marshall.

11.

The pick: Devonta Freeman RB Atlanta Falcons.

Reasoning: The Falcons second-half collapse is well documented, and Freeman suffered with the rest of the team. He put up Madden numbers in the first half, and I think that set up unrealistic expectations for him. He is fast, and a great pass-catcher out of the backfield. In today’s NFL, that is the prototype for a running back, which makes him a consistent RB1 because of how many ways he can attack a defense.

12.

The pick: Lamar Miller RB Houston Texans

Reasoning: I may be higher on Miller than most, but this guy is Jamaal Charles light, and he finally will be put into an offense that is capable of making the most of his talents. His speed and versatility are second probably only to Charles in the league, and as Miller is younger, he could even have the better season.

ROUND 2

13.

The pick: Thomas Rawls RB Seattle Seahwaks

Reasoning: No Marshawn Lynch, no problem. Although Rawls was only the starter last year for a handful of games, when he got at least 15 carries, he averaged over 17 fantasy points in those games. I would fully expect him to get 15 carries in 90% of the Seahawks games next year, which should mean he is well worth a late first-round pick. He fits very well in this offense and plays with the aggression that made Lynch a legend in the Northwest. The only knocks on him are that he came out of nowhere and he has yet to prove himself as a receiving back.

14.

The pick: Jordy Nelson WR Green Bay Packers

Reasoning: The Packers offense suffered without Nelson last year more than I think anyone could have imagined. I see him coming right back where he left off making Aaron Rodgers look like the best QB in the league again. If he is healthy, he will put up WR1 numbers.

 

14.

The pick: Sammy Watkins WR Buffalo Bills

Reasoning: Coming out of the incredible 2014 WR draft class, Watkins was picked before guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. In the 2^nd half of last year, he and Tyrod Taylor got onto the same page, and Watkins showed us all why he was taken 4^th overall 2 years ago. If QB play improves from last year, then Watkins could be a steal even as an early 2^nd round pick. The Bills will run the ball a lot, but Watkins can turn a couple of catches into a meaningful fantasy day.

 

16.

The pick: Dez Bryant WR Dallas Cowboys

Reasoning: Injuries to both Bryant and Tony Romo lead to a lost season for the Cowboys. As long as Romo is healthy, Bryant will put up huge touchdown numbers we have come to expect from him.

17.

The pick: Mike Evans WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Reasoning: If he had a handful more touchdowns, he would have been a surefire WR1 last year. I think another year with Jameis Winston under center will benefit the pair of them, and Evans will have 1,300 plus yards and 10 plus touchdowns. This offense can move, and Evans should be option A or B in terms of moving it, and definitely option A for scoring touchdowns.

18.

The pick: Mark Ingram

Reasoning: There are a lot of factors that go into Ingram getting picked here. One is that Drew Brees is another year older, and the Saints started to rely more heavily on Ingram than they had in the past. Another is that Ingram proved to be a very capable receiver out of the backfield. Despite rushing for 100 yards just once all year (and he did miss 4 games) he put up at least 9 fantasy points in every game but one that he played in. He won’t always make the stat sheet explode, but you can rely on him week in and week out, and that is all you can ask for from such a high pick.

 

19.

The pick: David Johnson RB Arizona Cardinals

Reasoning: This is another pick that is dependent on some offseason circumstances. The Cardinals re-signed Chris Johnson to an extension, and Andre Ellington is still here as well. Johnson looked a lot like Adrian Peterson towards the end of the year, and the offensive line looks like one of the best in the league. The problem is that the Cardinals pass the ball a lot, and David Johnson will probably be spelled for Ellington or Chris Johnson to keep him fresh at times. This is still Carson Palmer’s offense and Bruce Arian’s team. He would be a top-5 pick in dynasty leagues because of his talent, but I wouldn’t take him as a top-5 running back just yet.

 

The pick: AJ Green WR Cincinnati Bengals

Reasoning: I struggled with whom to pick here. After pick 20, the upside drops off. AJ Green is one of the best receivers in the NFL, but I have never been a fantasy fan of his. He will explode for one or two monster games per year, and have a few decent outings, but then he is largely inconsistent, and he is probably the 3^rd touchdown option on his own team. Here is the most important statistic that goes into this pick: In nine games last year, Green had less than 10 fantasy points, which is what I consider the baseline for WR1 play. That means less than half the time he put up serviceable numbers.

The Bengals let Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones Walk in free agency, which is why I picked Green over others here, but the Bengals will definitely take at least 1 WR in the draft. I know plenty of fantasy owners love Green, but I have never drafted him, and probably never will because of the consistent production I expect from my players. Let someone else draft him around this slot if not earlier, and pick someone else who can provide more consistent production.

21.

The Pick: T.Y. Hilton WR Indianapolis Colts

Reasoning: Without Andrew Luck for most of the year, Hilton still put up over 1,100 yards and 5 scores. Luck should be healthy to start next year, which should make Hilton worthy of a 2^nd round pick.

 

22.

The Pick: Demarco Murray RB Tennessee Titans

Reasoning: Murray’s awful encore performance to his 1,800 yards season with the Cowboys was due more to Chip Kelly’s pigheadedness than his own doings. Back with a team that knows how to run an offense, Murray should have a nice bounce back year. With Marcus Mariota running options with Murray, I would have to imagine that this offense is going to be much tougher to stop this year.

 

23.

The Pick: Latavius Murray RB Oakland Raiders

Reasoning: This offense will only continue to get better as Derek Carr and Amari Cooper get more experience. My biggest reason for putting Murray here is Kelechi Osemele who signed with the raiders. Expect the former Ravens guard to open up plenty of running lanes for Murray, and take this back to the next level as a starter. He never got less than 11 carries in a game last year, and he is the unquestioned starter, which is a rarity in NFL backfields today.

24.

The Pick: Amari Cooper WR Oakland Raiders

Reasoning: I considered a few players for the last spot in my little mock draft. Among them were Randall Cobb, Brandin Cooks, Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, Matt Forte, and Rob Gronkowski. All of them have rational arguments to be in the top 2 rounds. I have reason to believe that all of them would probably be in my 3^rd round if I were to extend this draft, but my reason for picking Cooper over the others had everything to do with upside. Over 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie don’t occur that often. I would expect him to improve on those numbers and have better seasons than the rest of the aforementioned players I chose not to include. I consider Cooper less risky than the others as well due to the fact that he is the best option on an offense that will continue to pass it a lot.

 

Post-mock notes:

 

-You will notice that I do not have any tight ends in the first 24 picks. After last years ridiculous idea to draft Rob Gronkowski in the first round, I am hoping that the idea doesn’t die so I can keep taking players in the first round that I don’t deserve to have because they will score more points than Gronk. Fantasy owners seriously underestimated the NFL’s depth of quality tight ends last year, and it probably cost some to lose championships to owners who started players Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert, or Jordan Reed. Gronkowski is undoubtedly the best tight end in the NFL still, and possibly the best of all time. He still isn’t worth passing up some of the incredible talent that goes in the first couple rounds. Take any combination of the two players listed in my mock draft, and then take a tight end somewhere in rounds 3 through 12 and go win a championship with one of the next best tight ends.

-There are no QB’s in my mock draft either. Some will argue that Cam Newton should be in there after his monster season, and that is a hard position to argue. I’ll have the world know that my championship squad started Eli Manning for most of the year, and I won my championship game with Matt Stafford as my starter. I took Manning in the 10^th round, and did not take a QB before then. Building up depth at your RB and WR spots is more important than having the top QB. Quarterback play can be decided by matchups more than most positions, and there is more depth at QB than arguably any position in fantasy football mostly because you only need to start 1 quarterback, and 5 backs and receivers. That has been my championship winning strategy for years, and it has rarely failed me.

-Top backs that can catch the ball are at a premium. Devonta Freeman wouldn’t be in my first 2 rounds if he didn’t prove that his receiving numbers could make up for meager rushing efforts.

-I did not take a Denver Wide Receiver despite them having 2 of the leagues premier receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Until we know who is starting at QB will be, I am not taking either in the first 2 rounds. Thomas should probably be a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick because he proved that QB play doesn’t matter in terms of him picking up fantasy starter yardage, but he caught his lowest touchdown total since 2011 last year with the sub-par quarterback play he endured. If the Broncos can find a way to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, I would argue that it is a QB upgrade for this team, and that Thomas is a sure-fire 2^nd round pick.

-A theme you will notice in my first 24 picks is the notion of consistency over upside potential. If you bust on a first or 2^nd round pick, your fantasy season largely relies on a late-round pick to become a starter. Injuries happen, but don’t pick a player who has high-risk, high reward potential. Owners who took Demarco Murray in the first round last year ignored the fact that he was playing away from Dallas’s elite offensive line, and that he is an injury prone player. Nobody could have predicted the senselessness of Chip Kelly, but owners were disappointed nonetheless. The key is to try and isolate talent and opportunity. Isolating talent can be very difficult in the NFL where success can very often be product of opportunity, especially at the position of running back. Where talent and opportunity meet is when you get top players, which is why my top 3 are the top receiving options in the league on offenses where they are the focal point. Receiver talent is more obvious than running backs. The only factor that can de-rail my top 3 from exceptional seasons are injuries. If healthy, there is no way they give a less than above average return on investment.

-Factors that make a player risky are: age, injury prone-ness, new teams, unknown workload, new coaches, inconsistency, and only 1 proven season of success. This makes almost every player in the league risky, but start by taking smaller risks in the first few rounds, then take bigger risks and focus more on upside after round 5 or so.

-I did not put the NFL’s 2^nd leading rusher Doug Martin in the first 2 rounds. Here is my reasoning: He is very reliant on yardage totals for fantasy. Fellow backfield mate Charles Sims steals a lot of receiving opportunities. In fact, Sims had over 1,000 total yards, which is incredible to think about because if Martin had all of those touches, he would have had one of the best seasons in NFL history for a running back. Sims brings a different skill set to the table, and that’s why he gets as many touches as he does. Martin is also not a great touchdown threat, which is very important in fantasy. He looks like a good goal line back, but Sims and Jameis Winston took away a bunch of red-zone rushing opportunities. The Bucs also have 3 pass-catchers over 6’5” so they steal a lot of red-zone looks. Martin is a good value in round 4, but I think even in round 3 there may be options with more upside.

I am sure plenty of people will disagree with my selections, and I have no problem with that. I am definitely wrong sometimes, but my drafting strategies have paid off for years. Expect some movers in the next few months, but based off of talent and upside, this is probably a pretty accurate expectation of how the top talents in the NFL should be drafted.

League Edge    March 30, 2016

Indianapolis Colts:

Even with quarterback Andrew Luck injured for much of last season, the year as a whole can still be considered a disappointment. The offense that was supposed to be one of the best in the league finished 28^th in yards per game, and 24^th in points per game. To make matters worse, they were 26^th in total defense.

The team has done basically nothing in free agency, and will look to the draft to address their many issues on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Colts need help on the offensive line. Despite the name recognition that this line has, it let the offense down, particularly in run blocking where they ranked 27^th in the league according to footballoutsiders.com. Football outsiders ranked them average in pass protection as well. When you have a young franchise quarterback like Andrew Luck, priority number 1 is to protect him. The best ways to do that are with a line that can open running lanes and take pressure off of him as well as make sure he isn’t constantly under duress.

Running back Frank Gore had only his 3^rd season rushing for under 1,000 yards, and his first since 2010 where he missed 5 games. He also averaged a career worst 3.7 yards per carry. Offensive line probably played a role in those numbers, but Gore is also one of the oldest running backs in the league, and has been playing since 2005. The depth on this team at the position is pretty thin, so I would expect it to be another high priority for the Colts in the draft.

The wide receiver position has depth despite the release of veteran Andre Johnson. Young receivers T.Y Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett are more than capable of scoring points, especially with a healthy Luck. Hilton had an off year without Luck, but should be a low-end WR2 with plenty of upside. If this team has a quick turnaround, he could play like a top 10 player at this position. Look for him in round 4, where his value will start to become hard to pass up. He may even go earlier. Moncrief is a solid flex option in rounds 6-8, and seeing as he will be a starting wide-out, I think he could perform like a WR2. Like Hilton, he could easily get drafted before his value starts to increase, which means other owners will be betting heavily on the high reward potential here. Dorsett should not be drafted, as he is a 3^rd WR and one that should only be an occasional deep threat in this offense.

Indy made an interesting move by letting Coby Fleener walk and sign a big deal with the Saints, but keeping Dwayne Allen after catching just 16 passes last year. He agreed to a 4-year, $ 29.4 million deal to stay in the blue and white. Not sure how 1 catch per game warrants over $7 million per year, but nobody is naming Ryan Grigson GM of the year anytime soon. Don’t bother drafting Allen, he is a better blocker than he is a pass-catcher.

Even though Luck was hurt most of the year, he didn’t look good for the time he was on the field. This could be because of a number of reasons. (Line play, weak running game, opposing matchups etc…) trying to decide when to pull the trigger on Luck in your fantasy draft is a very tough call. There is no denying his talent and his weapons, and he doesn’t have to be efficient to be a viable fantasy starter. To be safe, I would peg him as a low-end starter with upside. If he falls to the mid-late rounds (rounds 7-11) He is definitely worth a shot. If he gets any improvements on the line or in the running game, his draft stock will shoot up.

The defense should not be drafted, or even played in any format until they add some more talent to their front 7. Losing leading tackler Jerrell Freeman to the Bears doesn’t help at all. The Colts should address Defense with every pick in the draft that isn’t spent on an offensive lineman or a running back.

Houston Texans:

The Texans made two huge splashes in free agency by signing quarterback Brock Osweiler away from the Broncos and running back Lamar Miller away from the Dolphins.

I’ll start with the Miller signing which may have been my favorite offseason signing. Miller was criminally under-utilized in Miami due to their inability to run an NFL-caliber offense. When he signed a 4-year, $26 million contract, he put himself in an offense that has traditionally relied on a bell-cow back, and Miller can run for 1,500 yards in this offense with the talent at offensive line that this team possesses. I usually don’t bet that high on a new guy on a new team, but this seems like a perfect fit for a very talented young man. If he isn’t gobbled up by the late first round, then you should grab him in the 2^nd with no doubt in your mind you got a steal.

Now let’s move onto the big money signing. At $18 million per year over the next 4 years, the Texans took an immense gamble on this signing. Osweiler has started a grand total of 7 games in his NFL career. It’s anyone’s guess as to how he will fair with the Texans. Learning under Peyton Manning for his first few years is definitely a plus, but lack of experience may lead to some growing pains. Bill O’brien is a good coach capable of getting the most out of his QB’s, so don’t expect Brock to fall flat on his face. I think he should be drafted as a QB2, and if he starts to show some promise, could be a decent spot start. Any team with DeAndre Hopkins can make a serviceable quarterback into looking like a superstar on any given week. Brian Hoyer had a few games with starter fantasy numbers last year basically because Hopkins exploded.

As Hopkins proved last year, he is a top 5 WR in this league regardless of who throws him the ball. If Osweiler is a step up from Hoyer, he could put up the best stats in the league. A late first or an early 2^nd round pick is the latest he should go.

Houston has some other talent at wide receiver as well. Cecil Shorts III and Jaelen Strong are both great compliments to Hopkins. Strong has potential to be a great touchdown threat on the opposite side of Hopkins. I thought he was a major steal in the 3^rd round of last year’s draft, but he was also allegedly caught with marijuana earlier this month, so that could be a setback for him if he receives disciplinary action. Shorts is no more than a flex play at best, and is better off as depth or on the waiver wire unless your options are slim.

There is a pair of gifted young tight ends on this roster. Ryan Griffin and CJ Fiedorowicz are both smart pass catchers. Look for them to keep a role in this offense that is slightly below fantasy relevancy. If one of them starts to catch fire, add him quickly as the Texans will probably be looking to see who will be the go-to number 2 option behind Hopkins this year. I think Ryan Griffin could be that guy if he stays healthy.

This defense is spearheaded by freak of nature JJ Watt, and as long as that is the case, the defense will have the potential to be among the best. Watt isn’t the only quality starter on this unit however. The whole front 7 played fantastic last year, especially down the stretch. The cornerbacks on this team are also very talented and capable of shutting down the league’s best receivers. The defense as a whole is capable of being one of the top-5 defenses this upcoming season with high sack and turnover potential. Draft them accordingly in beginning of the last couple of rounds.

This is a team that should probably win the AFC South again. The Texans are in position to draft the best player available as they addressed their major holes with the Miller and Osweiler signings.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Is that a chill I feel? No? Just Hell freezing over? Oh ok that sounds more like it because the Jaguars….drum roll please….may just be a relevant team this upcoming year! There is some genuine excitement around this team for the first time in probably about a decade. The offense finally can score points! 2^nd year QB Blake Bortles threw for 35 touchdowns, and the jags finally field a very reliable receiving corps.

There was a ton of money thrown around by this club in free agency. Jets castoff Chris Ivory scored a $35 million contract spread out over the next 5 years. Super Bowl champion Malik Jackson landed one of the biggest contracts of all time; to the tune of 6 years and $90 million. Safety Tashaun Gipson added to the frenzy by signing a 5-year $35.5 million deal. $160.5 million: three new players.

If you couple the additions of Jackson and Gipson with the return of Dante Fowler, who missed his entire rookie season with an ACL injury, this defense may actually be able to keep opponents scoring down below the level of the defense that last year allowed the 2^nd most points in the league. I still wouldn’t draft them as they are young and unproven as a group, but keep an eye out for a possible streaming play here or there.

Blake Bortles (or as I like to call him; “Teenage Mutant Ninja Bortles”) finished as the 4^th ranked QB last year. I love his weapons, especially former Penn State Nittany Lion Allen Robinson. I am predicting that Bortles doesn’t finish as high as he did last year. He definitely proved he can sling the rock, but his 18 interceptions and 58.6 completion percentage prove he still needs to improve his decision-making. I don’t think there will be a huge dip in numbers, but as the Jags improve defensively and in the run game, they shouldn’t be forced to throw the ball as much as they had to last year. (Almost 38 pass attempts per game last season) This should cut down on the turnovers, but Bortles will have to improve his completion percentage to up his yardage total. Chris Ivory will likely steal away some touchdowns that Bortles may have been forced to throw last year. I am predicting a more efficient Bortles this upcoming season, but not higher fantasy numbers. I would take him as a solid QB2 and play him with good matchups, especially if he has to keep airing it out the way he did last year due to an underperforming defense. If a game looks like a potential shootout, put Bortles and Robinson the game.

If head coach Gus Bradley reveals how Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon will split carries, then you can use that information to gauge where to draft them. As of right now, I would Imagine Ivory would be the starter because they are paying the guy $7 million per year. This would essentially make Yeldon a change of pace back and maybe a 3^rd down back. If that is the case, Ivory is a low-end RB2 and Yeldon isn’t really fantasy relevant for anything other than a handcuff. This situation could be fluid as well as Ivory is a newcomer and Yeldon is only in his 2^nd year in the league. Keep an eye on this one throughout training camps.

The wideouts in Jacksonville are very Talented. Allen Robinson is a stud. He was part of that ridiculous draft class for wide receivers that saw Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans go in the top 10. Any other year he would probably have been a first round draft pick. Don’t forget about Allen Hurns either. The undrafted receiver out of Miami has proved he belongs as the 2^nd option in this offense, and a consistent touchdown threat. He was a WR2 last year, and I would expect that to continue into next year. However, I like his value more as a WR3 or flex option due to the fact that he isn’t the top option on his own offense, and the potential for the Jags to have a more balanced offense.

I think Julius Thomas may be the most overpaid tight end in the league. Don’t be tempted into drafting him as a starter this year. There are better options, and Bortles still hasn’t been able to develop a respectable rapport with him. He is a capable tight end for a bye week or injury fill-in, but I can probably think of 12-14 other players at his position I would rather have than him.

A lot of people are mocking safety Jalen Ramsey to the Jaguars at the number 5 pick. I think there is no way this happens for 2 reasons: First is, I don’t think he will make it to the number 5 pick. Many analysts are calling him the drafts best player, and I think he definitely gets picked before number 5. All 4 teams in front of him could use his services. Reason number 2 is that Jacksonville already has a pair of talented safeties in Tashaun Gipson and Jonathan Cyprien. The Jags may even trade back from this spot if a QB-needy team really wants either Goff or Wentz. (Assuming they both last til number 5 overall) In my opinion, if Vernon Hargreaves is still available at number 5, he should be the pick. I know he doesn’t fit the mold of the modern NFL CB, (over 6 feet tall, long arms) but if you throw on the tape from this guy, he shuts down everyone. Corner is probably the biggest need on this team as well, so if Ramsey isn’t available, the former Florida star is the obvious choice to me.

Tennessee Titans:

It was another rough season for the Titans. Finishing with a league worst 3-13 record, they will get the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft. It has been rumored that Tennessee is shopping the pick, and why wouldn’t they? There are QB-needy teams out there that would love to lock themselves into grabbing Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. Since the Titans already have Marcus Mariota, there is no reason to take another QB unless they plan to hold one ransom after the draft for picks. If they can move back and take a high quality player while still getting a ransom of draft picks in the deal, it should definitely be considered a win.

The Titans have not made a ton of moves this offseason. They signed WR Rishard Matthews away from the Dolphins, and swapped draft picks with the Eagles to land Demarco Murray and his large contract. They also just signed Cardinals cast-off Rashad Johnson to play safety. The addition of Matthews gives the Titans 5 average-ish wide receivers. Kendall Wright was the leader of the pack until the Titans drafted Dorial Green-Beckham. DGB has the potential to break out, but seemed to be just feeling his way through his rookie season and relying on his physical gifts to make plays. This is fine, but in order to become a regular starter on your fantasy team, you will want him to start putting up good numbers on a more regular basis. Take him as a late rounder with the potential to start if he puts it all together in his 2^nd season. None of the other receivers are worth owning unless they start to develop a healthier rapport with Mariota.

The trade for Murray suggests that the Titans want to utilize the ground and pound strategy and run Mariota in the option as well. Murray should expect a nice rebound year now that he is removed from the “mad scientist” Chip Kelly. (I say mad scientist as a bitter Eagles fan who is relieved to see him gone) I would expect Murray to surpass 1,000 yards again with a concrete o-line paving the way and plays that are called to have Murray run up the field instead of to the sidelines. I would Expect RB1 numbers out of Murray again this year. The former rushing champ definitely won’t hit 1,800 yards like he did with the Cowboys a couple of years ago, but he should net solid enough numbers to warrant being regularly started on your fantasy squad.

Mariota missed 4 games due to injury last season, but showed promise despite being the 22^nd ranked QB last year. Since rushing yards and touchdowns for QB’s can make them infinitely more valuable, (Example A: Cam Newton) the former Oregon Duck definitely merits some fantasy consideration. I would draft him as a backup, and if he gets hot, consider playing him when the matchup is right. The QB is very smart, and I don’t think it will take him long to fully adapt to the NFL game.

Probably the most valuable commodity on this offense is tight end Delanie Walker. Walker put together his 2^nd solid season with the Titans, catching 94 balls for 1,088 yards and 6 scores. By the end of the season, it seemed like he was targeted on almost every pass play. Draft him as your starter and don’t stress about a bad game because those should be few and far between.

The Titans have quietly put together an underrated defense. They have some quality pieces on all levels of the defense despite not being fantasy relevant in the past couple of years. Having Dick LeBeau as a defensive coordinator means that it won’t be long before offenses dread having the Titans on their schedule. I don’t expect them to be an elite defense this year, but with a solid draft this year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. You probably don’t need to draft them, but they could be a hot waiver wire add early in the season. If you know about the potential before the season begins, you will know when to put in a claim for this unit before they face an easy part of their schedule.

League Edge    March 26, 2016

Atlanta Falcons:

If you are reading this and you are a Falcon’s fan: I am sorry about that late season collapse. It had to have been really tough to watch after setting the league on fire through 8 games. Despite the collapse, there were a lot of positive takes from last season.

On offense, the Falcons found a running game and that game is named Devonta Freeman. Over the first half of the season, Freeman absolutely lit it up. Over the second half, like much of his team, he slowed down a bit. Rookie Tevin Coleman proved to be an intriguing handcuff when he filled in for Freeman as well. Coleman did struggle with holding onto the ball a little, which will keep him relegated to the backup role. Freeman will get enough carries to warrant being on your fantasy team, the question is where do you draft him? I will give a more detailed answer when I do my pre-draft player rankings, but after the slide he saw at the end of last season, I am leaning towards drafting him as an RB2 and hoping for the best. Over the last 8 games of the season, Freeman averaged over 3.4 yards per carry in a game twice. This compared 6 times in the first half. Those numbers display my skepticism perfectly.

Obviously Julio Jones is a freak of nature and deserves to be a top 15 pick in every standard draft. The Falcons did sign Mohamed Sanu away from Cincinnati, but I wouldn’t expect him to put up any better than WR3 numbers unless Matt Ryan return to playing like a reliable QB. I would draft Ryan as a backup QB or a very low-end QB1 and hope for the best. The signing of guard Alex Mack should help him stay on his feet long enough to find Jones and Sanu often enough to move the chains.

Tight end Jacob Tamme had a few decent games last year, but only warrants a start in a pinch where your starter gets injured or goes on a bye week. He is not a very predictable fantasy player.

There aren’t any other fantasy relevant commodities on this offense, so let’s move to the other side of the ball where the defense is looking the best it has in years. The front 7 is solid, and they held opponents to 105 yards on the ground per game good for 14^th in the league. The back end has a star in Desmond Trufant, but the other players around him do not hold down the fort the way he does. I would expect the Falcons to look for help, especially at the safety position in the draft. The Falcons are a sneaky play because of their ability to hold opponents down in the run game. If they were matched up with a team that struggles passing, they could have a decent fantasy day. I would not draft them, but don’t shoo them away like they are a completely useless defense either.

New Orleans Saints:

It just seems that ever since the Saints won the Super Bowl back in ’09 that the team has been steadily declining every year. There are a lot of factors that I would attribute this decline to. One factor I would not include is Drew Brees. Despite being one of the oldest QB’s in the league, Brees still lead the NFL in passing yards last season and threw for 32 touchdowns. Brees’ stats aren’t as ridiculous as they have been in the past where he became the first quarterback ever to throw for over 5,000 yards in 3 straight seasons, but he is still a very viable passer. He can be taken as a mid-level starter in the mid rounds, but there is always the threat that age will continue to creep up on him and hurt his numbers. I think it is safe to say that his best years are behind him, and that while the drop off shouldn’t be massive, the stats should decline every year from here. In other words; buyer beware.

Unfortunately for Brees, his weapons have significantly declined since he could chose either Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston in his prime, or Darren Sproles out of the backfield. Now his best weapon is Brandin Cooks who is a very good playmaker, but not the target machines that the previous three were. A lot of people like Cooks, and I am one of them, but I would not take him expecting consistent WR1 numbers. He has yet to prove consistency even though he has plenty of games that are top WR numbers. He is a feast of famine play, but the feasts are more frequent than the famines making for a very solid WR2. A developing weapon is undrafted talent Willie Snead. He came on very strong earning his first season with a major role in this offense. He is probably more of a WR3, but both Snead and Cooks have the talent to play above where they will likely be drafted.

Replacing star tight end Jimmy Graham at the tight end spot last year was a resurgent Ben Watson who at 34 years old had the best season of his career. The Saints did not seem to bank on him being the long-term answer, which is why they went out and paid a hefty sum of money to go sign Coby Fleener away from the Colts. While he struggled to find success with the Colts, One would have to think he will have every chance to put up very big numbers in arguably the friendliest offense for tight ends in the NFL. He is definitely worth drafting, and I would say somewhere in rounds 5 to 9 are good spots for him. Personally I would have liked to see better success in Indy before picking him as my number 1 tight end in rounds 5-7, but every draft is different and there will be plenty of time this offseason to see if he is getting a hold of the playbook.

Despite missing the last 4 games of last season, Mark Ingram still put up the 13^th best season of any back last year. What really made Ingram such a consistent fantasy commodity was his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. This allowed him to stay on the field for all 3 downs and become a more complete back. He is a surefire round 1 or 2 pick, and if he lasts past round 2 it would shock me after the season he just had.

The real downfall of this team over the past half decade has been the absolute miserable play on defense. The Saints constantly find themselves in shootouts because Brees can sling the rock and anyone can sling it against this D. Hopefully by firing Rob Ryan, some fresh blood can help get this unit back on track since there are talented players here. Don’t draft them, but if new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen can harness the talent, this could be a very good team.

I would expect the saints to draft for defense in the draft, specifically in the secondary.

Carolina Panthers:

There was certainly a lot that went into the Panthers marvelous season. Defenses win championships, and this defense almost did just that. They are definitely expected to be one of the top defenses again going into next year’s fantasy drafts, especially if they can find another pass rusher. Draft them as a top 5 D/ST, but don’t draft them the way fantasy owners have been drafting the Seahawks in the past couple of years. 4 teams finished ahead of them in fantasy points last year, and I am willing to bet that none of them went before the Seahawks in drafts for 99% of leagues.

There are more questions on the other side of the ball however. While the Panthers can certainly move the ball, (and they ranked #1 in offense last year) I don’t think that they were quite all that they appeared. Before last season, I took a look at the strength of schedule for the running game, and I saw that the Panthers had the weakest opposing schedule against the run based on last 2014 stats. I knew that DeAngelo Williams had moved to Pittsburgh to play for the Steelers and that Jonathan Stewart was going to get a chance to finally shoulder the load of the Panthers run game. I targeted him in the 4^th round of drafts, and I nabbed him, and at least for the 2^nd half of the season, he played very well and was well worth the draft pick. Had the strength of schedule been on the other end of the spectrum with such luck that the Packers had, I would probably not have looked at Stewart until the 6^th round or later. Without that run game available, I don’t think it would have been as easy for Cam to have the absurd season that he had. Strength of schedule will help determine where to draft Stewart again, but keep in mind that Cam will probably steal a lot of his touchdowns. Cameron Artis-Payne also started to eat into Stewart’s load by the end of the year. I would probably look to Stewart in round 6ish.

I don’t want to take anything away from Cam Newton, because the guy is the most physically talented quarterback to ever enter this league. That isn’t even a disputable statement. What is slightly questionable is how he managed to throw for 35 touchdowns with Ted Ginn as his primary receiver all year. Having Greg Olsen helps, but here are a few numbers to consider: Newton had the 16^th most passing yards in the league, which is right in the middle of the league. It’s actually closer to the bottom when you factor in team passing yards, Newton sinks into the bottom half of the league. In fact, when you look at QB’s who had at least 150 pass attempts; Newton came in as the 27^th in completion percentage. These are stats that we judge normal QB’s by, and by those standards, he is definitely below average. But Newton isn’t a normal QB. When you rush for 10 touchdowns and over 600 yards, it doesn’t matter what your completion percentage is, especially in fantasy football. With Kelvin Benjamin coming back from injury and another year of experience for prospect Devin Funchess to mature, I would expect Newton to be a top 5 QB again this year, and many will take him as the first QB off the board. If the panthers get another weapon in the draft, you may be looking at a truly unstoppable NFL team.

So where do you draft the pass-catchers in this offense? Greg Olsen has been a consistent force for years, and deserves to be drafted like a top 5 tight end in the round 5-8 area. If all signs point to Benjamin looking healthy and ready to improve on his rookie season, he should be drafted like a WR2/WR3 with the upside to play like a WR1. The Panthers run the ball a lot, but Benjamin should catch his fair share of touchdowns. I would look to him in rounds 4-6, knowing that he could perform like a very good WR2. Funchess is no more than a late round flier, but his potential to be Kelvin Benjamin-like is very much there. Ted Ginn should also be drafted late. He is a big-play threat, but those kinds of players rarely are fantasy-consistent, especially when they aren’t the top option on the team.

This is a young team in a similar mold of the Seattle Seahawks, and I would expect the two teams to be competing for Super Bowl berths for the next half decade.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

There is another changing of the guard here in Tampa Bay. Yes the left guard position will now be occupied by Seattle castoff J.R. Sweezy, but the real change here will be at head coach where the Bucs 2015 offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will take over as head coach. After the job he did to rejuvenate this offense, this seems like a good hire. I think after this many years as a head coach, it is finally fair to call Lovie Smith overrated. Other than the year where the Bears lost to the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl back in early 2007, where they had a championship caliber defense, Lovie Smith has not fielded any really good teams. He will move on to coach the University of Illinois next season.

Koetter has a lot on offense to work with. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston proved to be worth the first overall pick, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. He also rushed for other 200 and 6 touchdowns. Winston’s completion percentage wasn’t great at 58.3%, but we should expect that to improve in year two along with reducing his 17 turnovers. Winston has weapons around him, and should be a decent QB2. He finished as the 14^th ranked QB last year, and there is no reason to believe that he can’t move into the starting ranks sometime either this year or in the next 2 years. I would still draft him as a backup considering how much the Bucs run the football.

Despite the presence of veteran Vincent Jackson, there is only one wide receiver worth drafting and that is Mike Evans. He followed his stellar rookie performance up by grabbing 74 balls for 1,206 yards and 3 scores. Evans started the year a little slow, and never quite got the red-zone rapport down with Winston, but with another full offseason to work together, I would expect the 6’5” Evans to be a primary end-zone target this year making his potential for WR1 numbers very high. He is likely a 2^nd round pick, and if he falls to the 3^rd, it would be wise to snag him up before someone else does.

Speaking of sky-scraping receiving options, 2^nd year tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins doubled his touchdown total from his rookie year. (Albeit from 2 to 4) He has still not proved a consistent option going into his 3^rd year as a pro, and health has been a major factor. He has only played 16 of a possible 32 games so far. If he can stay healthy, he could be in line for a breakout season. He is worth no more than a late-round flier due to lack of any dependability.

What makes this offense really move is the run game. It all starts with Doug Martin, but we can’t forget about Charles Sims either. Martin finished 2^nd in the league in rushing yards with 1,402. Sims actually was 2^nd on the team in receptions and yards with 51 and 561 respectively. The two complement each other well, and create a lot of mismatch problems for opposing defenses. Martin is not a huge touchdown threat. But he does get enough work in the receiving game to warrant being a RB1. I drafted him in round 6 last year, betting on the pre-season hype train and it paid off big for my team. There is no way he will last that long again this year, and he could go anywhere in rounds 1-3 depending on where people think he should go. I would say round 2 is where I would prefer him, I really like my round 1 pick to have a greater touchdown potential and not just rely on total yards for fantasy points. Sims actually put up over 1,000 total yards and 4 scores, which is worth some flex consideration. He will likely be a mid-round pick, but don’t expect him to carry your team unless Martin gets hurt.

The Bucs D/ST finished right in the middle of the pack, and I would expect similar things this year. They have some good pieces, but their secondary really needs some help, and I am not sure Brent Grimes is enough to fix the back end. They should not be drafted barring a major draft remodel, but keep an eye on their matchups as they could be a good streaming play, especially against a team that struggles to pass the ball.

League Edge    March 22, 2016