New York Jets:
The Jets made a splash in free agency by upgrading their offensive backfield in a big way. After letting Chris Ivory stroll on down to the Jaguars for a big chunk of change, the Jets nabbed former Chicago Bear Matt Forte. While getting up there in age, Forte is still an extremely versatile back who can do basically everything for the Jets. To back him up, the Jets still have pass-catching specialist Bilal Powell, and signed away battering ram Khiry Robinson from the saints. In this stage of his career, Forte is probably closer to an RB2 than a RB1, but he will be a darn good RB2 with plenty of games that will help you win your fantasy matchup. Powell and Robinson are nothing more than handcuffs, though Powell will have a few unpredictable big receiving games here and there.
The quarterback situation in New York is filled with drama as it always is in the offseason. Last year’s starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is demanding a high salary, and after what the Eagles signed Sam Bradford to, it’s hard to argue Fitzpatrick’s demands. Living in Denver, I listen to a lot of sports talk radio about the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a team that is said to be in the mix for the Harvard man, and I heard grumblings that the Eagles ruined the QB market when they gave him an average of $18 million per year. When you compare the two QB’s numbers, they tell two different stories. Fitzpatrick threw 31 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. When a QB has a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio, that is generally considered respectable, and any season over 30 touchdowns is the new standard for good QB play in the NFL today. Nevertheless, 15 picks in 16 games doesn’t look as good when you compare it to the NFL’s elite. Bradford threw for 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, a ratio that looks way worse in comparison.
However, those numbers don’t tell the full story. Fitzpatrick was working in a much better offense with a two very reliable receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Fitz also had a reliable run game for most of the year as Chris Ivory ran for over 1000 yards. On the other hand, Bradford had a group of unreliable receivers who dropped more passes than any other team in the league according to SportingCharts. He also had a running game that was completely undermined by Chip Kelly and his dogmatic ways, which lead to an extremely inefficient offense. A better stat would be to look at their individual completion percentages. The minimum completion percentage for a starting caliber quarterback is usually 60%. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 59.6 completion percentage on a 562 attempts. Bradford posted a career high 65 percent completion percentage on just 30 fewer pass attempts. (Bradford also missed 2 games) The Eagles also had almost no semblance of a running game all year. When you look at circumstance, you could definitely argue Bradford made the most out of his situation white Fitzpatrick just relied on Marshall, Decker, and Ivory to do all of the heavy lifting for the offense.
Fitzpatrick has always been a low-end starter, and that’s all the Jets will get from him if he re-signs. What I find odd about the whole situation is the attitude the Jets had last offseason vs. this one. Last offseason, the Jets were all gung-ho on starting Geno Smith before he got sucker-punched in August. I understand that he flat out sucked in his first two years as the starter, but is he that much worse than Fitzpatrick? New York was prepared to start him over Fitzpatrick before he got punched in the face and broke his jaw. Plenty of QB’s struggle in their first few years in the NFL, and since Smith only has a cap hit of $1.597 million this year according to Spotrac, why not give him a shot at the job and look to the draft either this year or next year if he fails? If the market for QB’s were any different, I would say maybe try and sign a stopgap for year. Gang green should sign another QB to compete with Smith and at minimum provide serviceable backup work. They could also give Bryce Petty a shot because what the heck right? Anything could happen, but more analysis to come later in the offseason on this QB situation.
The wideouts should be fine no matter who the QB is. Marshall is a year older and on the wrong side of 30, but as he proved last year, he can still ball out. I would pick him in the WR2 area. I loved his draft value last year when he was getting taken in rounds 4-6 of standard fantasy drafts, but his value definitely went up over the offseason, and I would expect him to go off boards in rounds 2-4. I think the 3rd round will probably be good value for him. The 2nd is a little high unless he somehow gets an upgrade at QB. You can probably find a RB/WR with more upside. The 4th round is probably a steal, especially in 12-team leagues. Eric Decker is a solid WR2 that will probably go in the low-mid rounds. Other than a late-round flier on 3rd year tight end Jace Amaro, there probably aren’t any more skill position players on the Jets worth drafting. Their defense finished 12th in the league, so they were pretty good and a borderline starter in most leagues. I would expect pretty much the same with most of the starters coming back next season, but don’t bother picking them until the last round or two of your draft if you decide to target them.
New England Patriots:
The patriots have been active this offseason on improving their team on both side of the ball. Before I get to the Chandler Jones and Martellus Bennett deals, I want to talk about one of the most Patriot-like things that you will ever see. Last week, the Pats signed wide receiver Chris Hogan to an offer sheet from the Buffalo Bills. The Bills chose not to match the 3-year $12 million offer, and why would they? $4 million for a guy who backs up Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods is very expensive. On the New England side, they saw what probably few others saw on film: the guy gets open. He is also different than the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman/Danny Amendola slot receiver that the Pats love to utilize. Hogan is 6’1’’ and can be a legitimate outside threat for the pats. He is a sleeper pick in fantasy this year, and I would take a guess that he will put up between 700-1000 yards and 5-8 Td’s. Those are about WR3 numbers, but you never know who will blow up in the Patriots offense. As long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are still around, anything can happen.
On to the Jones trade then some more insight into fantasy projections. So a few days ago the Patriots traded defensive end Chandler Jones to the Cardinals for a 2nd round pick and guard Jonathan Cooper. Since the Patriots had their first round pick stripped by the NFL for the actions involving deflate-gate, the move to get another 2nd round pick is definitely a good move looking to the future of the team. Jonathan Cooper was a highly regarded guard coming out of college but has struggled with injuries and inconsistent play since he was drafted. If the Patriots can get Cooper to be a solid starter, they will have definitely won this trade. This trade looks even better for the Patriots when you consider shortly after it was completed, they signed former Rams defensive end Chris Long to a 1-year deal. Over the past two years, he hasn’t played up to the standard we had all come to expect earlier in his career, but like Cooper, if the Pats can get him to play at a starter level, this deal will be a great one.
With the way Jabaal Sheard played last season, I think the Patriots could afford to make this trade. They shouldn’t see much of a drop off in pass rush with the Long/Sheard combo replacing Jones. This is a very solid defense, worth picking in your fantasy draft somewhere in the middle of the starting defenses.
Where do you draft Tom Brady? Even at 39 years old, I can’t really see him dropping off the way Peyton Manning did. He is in the best shape of his life, and doesn’t look like a player who will retire sometime (maybe?) in the next few years. If the offensive line is improved this offseason, I would take Brady as a top 5 QB, probably top 3.
Julian Edelman can be taken as a WR2, and a WR1 in PPR leagues. He catches a ton of balls, but they are usually on short passes, and you can’t count on him for a ton of touchdowns the same way you can with other top wideouts. Danny Amendola can play on a similar level to Edelman, but Edelman is tops in the pecking order, so Amendola shouldn’t be started unless Edelman gets injured again.
Rob Gronkowski is without a doubt the top tight end in football. Last year was the first year I have ever seen a tight end consistently go in the first round. To me, this is ridiculous. I understand that Gronk is more talented than any tight end maybe in history, but the drop off in production last season from him to Jordan Reed (who had the 2nd highest point total for tight ends last season) equated to only a little over a point per game difference. The next three tight ends with the best production (Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker, and Greg Olsen) were right behind Reed in production. Barnidge and Reed went largely undrafted last year, and Walker could be had in the 10th round or later sometimes. Olsen was probably drafted in rounds 4-6 in your league. This tells me you don’t need to spend a 1st round pick on Gronk when you could have had Antonio Brown or Julio Jones probably at the same pick who would have netted you 4 or 5 more points per game than Gronk. Say you took Gronk in round 1 and took a WR in round 2. Let’s say it was T.Y. Hilton or Calvin Johnson (two WR’s that frequently went in round 2 last year) Going by my league’s scoring (which awards .2 points for reception) You would have About 22 points per game coming from the Gronkowski and Johnson/Hilton combo. If you took Antonio Brown in round 1, any player that didn’t get injured in round 2, and picked up either Jordan Reed or Gary Barnidge off the waiver wire, you would have gotten about 27 points per game out of that combo, and that isn’t even mentioning whatever production you got from your second round pick. Let someone else take Gronk in round 1 or 2 this year, if he falls to round 3 then it may be worth a look depending on who else is on the board. This isn’t to say taking Gronk in round 1 is a death sentence. I played in a league last year where the winner had Gronk and took him in the first round. It helped that he hit on almost all of his other picks though with Brandon Marshall, Jonathan Stewart, and Devonta Freeman all getting taken in the mid-rounds and turning out to be studs.
The Patriots also traded for tight end Martellus Bennett while swapping some day 3 draft picks. When the Patriots had Gronk and Aaron Hernandez on the same team, they ran 2 tight end sets better than probably any team in history. Since Hernandez decided killing people was more important than football, the Pats haven’t been able to find the same success from the TE2 position. Bennett may not have the talent that Hernandez had, but he is still a huge target with soft hands and a sound blocker. If he starts to show some rapport with Brady, he could be an interesting waiver wire pickup. If Gronk gets injured, he is a must-add in fantasy.
The murkiest situation in New England right now is the running game. I would be shocked if the Patriots don’t take a running back in the draft. I am also shocked that they have not tried to re-sign LeGarrette Blount even to a 1-year deal. Say what you want about his personality, but the guy can still wear down a defense with the best of them. The Biggest astonishment of last season was how in the heck Dion Lewis turned into a viable running back for the first half of last year before he got injured. Leave it to the Pats. As a fan of any of the other 31 teams in the league, I am sure you have been personally victimized by the patriots ability to take your team’s draft dud and turning him into a stud. If Lewis is the starter going into next year, I would consider him a solid RB2, with a boost in rating if you play in a PPR league. This is a situation to be monitored, but don’t expect a lot of clues. I am sure there is a “Loose lips sink ships” sign somewhere in the Patriots team facility.
Buffalo Bills:
Wow has this situation been boring and slightly depressing. The Bills biggest offseason move so far has been to re-sign Ritchie Incognito. Oh I almost forgot that Rob Ryan is now the Defensive coordinator. This could make the Bills into a half decent sit-com. How long will it be until Rob Ryan’s defense let’s up a touchdown and Rex goes over to have a brotherly shouting match? Let’s hope soon.
Back to fantasy football. It all starts with the quarterback, so let’s talk Tyrod Taylor. I think he turned more than a few heads when he proved to be more than just a scrambler. As long as the Bills have Sammy Watkins, Taylor deserves to be a QB2 who can fill in when your starter has a bad matchup or a bye week.
The Bills had some pretty good success running the ball last year. In fact, they lead the NFL in rushing yards. Whether it was LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams, Mike Gillislee, or even Tyrod Taylor the Bills had no trouble shoving the football down opposing defense’s throats via the ground game. This is the sign of a good offensive line as well as a talented stable or running backs. McCoy may be suspended due to an off the field incident, which would complicate your draft strategy. Whoever is going to be starting the majority of the games deserves to be drafted somewhere in rounds 2-4. If McCoy does not get suspended, he is a surefire round 2 pick, and maybe even round 1. The severity of any suspension will definitely muddy the situation up, and may make Karlos Williams a decent mid round pick if you want a guy who can start you off with a few solid games depending on strength of schedule.
While Robert Woods is a quality NFL receiver, he should probably not be drafted as anything except a late round flier. The Bills run the ball well and the only reason they should throw the ball is to let Sammy Watkins make plays. Woods is not consistent enough to be on your roster unless Watkins gets hurt. Even if that does happen, he is probably no better than a WR3. Watkins averaged WR2 numbers, but especially in the last 4-8 games played more like a WR1. I don’t see him as having as much upside as some other wide receivers because of the offense he plays in, but there is no questioning his talent. I would place him in the high end WR2 conversation with the ability to outplay his draft position.
Charles Clay is a decent tight end when you compare him to others at his position. He finished 19th in points amongst tight ends last year, meaning he was only really good for a spot start here and there. There is no reason to draft him.
This defense underperformed last year. The only major difference this year on the player side is that Mario Williams will be playing for the Rival Miami Dolphins. There are some other players such as Leodis Mckelvin who left for greener pastures, but no losses this defense cannot handle.
When you really think about it, the Bills are only in need of a few things to really be a very competitive team: Marginally better QB play, better coaching, and maybe another impact player or two on each side of the ball. That’s really it. I’ll admit I am not a fan of either of the Ryan brothers. I believe they talk about success a lot more than they actually have it. If the Bills have a good draft, and keep the coaching gaffs to a minimum, you could be looking at a wild card team.
Miami Dolphins:
Wait we aren’t at the strip club with Rick Ross? The way money is being thrown around…ah forget it. The Dolphins are quickly becoming known as the team that feels the need to win free agency every year. Last year it was signing Ndamukong Suh to an absurd 6-year, $114 million contract. (which at least was re-structured this offseason) This year the Dolphins made a few interesting moves. The first was to give a huge thank you to Chip Kelly and trade away the 8th overall pick in the draft to the Eagles for the 13th overall pick, Kiko Alonso, and Byron Maxwell. Now when you ignore the money in this deal, it can look like a great move. Maxwell can play like a good number 2 corner in the right system, and if Kiko Alonso can return to the form he displayed in his rookie season, he can be a monster roaming the middle of the Miami defense. The problem with Maxwell is his massive $63 million contract that the Dolphins inherited from Philly. There is the fact that he played like a scrub last year in Bill Davis’ defense. Even if Maxwell plays like a great number 2 corner, he won’t come even close to living up to his contract. The concern with Alonso is that he played last season and looked like a shell of the player who was runner up for defensive rookie of the year 2 years ago. Perhaps another year removed from an ACL reconstruction will allow him to step his game back up.
The Fins originally tagged defensive end Oliver Vernon with the intention to keep him around for at least another year. For whatever reason, they decided to let Vernon go and instead overpay the 31 year-old Mario Williams to the tune of $17 million over the next 2 years. See the theme here? The Dolphins seem to like signing players who had great seasons 2 years ago, and paying them like last year never happened. Sure Vernon would have been more expensive to keep around, but the Fins decided they could shell out almost $9 million/year for a guy who looks to be slowing down. (Albeit after a very solid career) Would paying the extra few million per year for a guy who is only 25 years old and seems to be entering the prime of his career be that big of a deal? Sorry to disappoint the Dolphins fans, but unless a few of these players start to really play up to their contracts, it looks like there was a lot of money wasted again this offseason.
The only defensive move that I thought was wise was the signing of safety Isa Abdul-Quddus. The former Detroit Lion was rated very highly by the NFL 1000 series on Bleacher Report. For an average of only $4 million per year, this looks like a very solid under the radar signing.
Overall, this defense depends on how far defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can take them. The former Bengals defensive backs coach hopes he can improve the Dolphins that ranked 26th in fantasy last year. It is hard to imagine that replacing Brent Grimes with Byron Maxwell and Olivier Vernon with Mario Williams will make any real difference for this unit, and I would not bother to draft them in fantasy.
You can all count me as someone who thought Ryan Tannehill would take another step forward in becoming a franchise quarterback last year. I find a lot of my predictions are usually right, but nobody is perfect at predicting the future, and I was definitely off in my thinking that he would make his way into the upper echelon of NFL QB’s. He is definitely a starter, but he shouldn’t be a starter on your fantasy team; at least not until he can prove himself. New head coach Adam Gase turned Jay Cutler from a turnover machine into a reliable quarterback, so maybe he can improve Tannehill’s play as well.
The first step I think is to improve his weapons arsenal. Miami took a huge step forward last year by drafting wide receiver DeVante Parker, but that may not be enough. Their two other starting wideouts will act as great compliments to Parker as long as the former Louisville standout realizes his potential. Jarvis Landry is a very reliable target, and finished last season as the 14th best WR, which made him a very strong WR2 last year. I would expect Tannehill to keep leaning heavily on him, and for Landry to continue his excellent play and be a reliable WR2 again. I would Draft DeVante Parker as a WR3, and pray that Adam Gase works his magic and helps Parker turn into a WR2 or even a WR1. Seeing as Parker came along slowly last year, and will have to learn a new offense, I wouldn’t expect WR1 numbers right out of the gate from Parker even though he certainly has potential to be a top 10 WR in this league. He has been compared favorably to AJ Green, and he can definitely be a similar player. As Parker comes into his own, he should phase out Kenny Stills, but Stills is always a threat to break one deep. Stills is a low-end flex option at best in this offense.
The running game is well…. complicated. Former offensive coordinator Bill Lazor couldn’t figure out how to use Lamar Miller, and now the will play in Houston. It looks like the Dolphins will give Jay Ajayi, the former Boise State Bronco the chance to be an every-down back in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he will probably be a borderline RB2/RB3 depending on how Adam Gase decides to utilize him. I am imagining that they will look to the draft to add RB depth. Keep an eye on this situation through training camps and pre-season to see how it develops. Other draft needs include cornerback and linebacker.
League Edge March 20, 2016
league Edge 