Welcome back fantasy enthusiasts! After a short hiatus from posting fantasy football articles, I am back and better than ever to bring you the Ultimate Guide to Mock Drafting. In this two-part article, I will go over strategies of mock drafting, and then go round-by-round with explanations of my picks through a mock draft I did on June 7^th 2016.

 

So the first question you may be asking yourself after reading the title is why should I mock draft? Well if you want to get good at anything, practice is key. In the mock I illuminate in the 2nd part of this article, I made a few picks that I questioned as I picked them. For example, in round 3 I had the decision to pick either Sammy Watkins or T.Y. Hilton. While I think I would be happy with either pick had this been a real draft, using all available resources to figure out which pick you would prefer is very helpful when it comes time for the real deal. There is nothing worse than spending all season regretting a high draft pick, and this is the best way to figure out your comfort level with drafting certain players.

 

So how often should I do mock drafts? I like to do one in the beginning of the drafting season (around this time) then another one or two a bit closer to draft time. The week of your fantasy draft, I would recommend doing a few to familiarize yourself with the current ADP. (Something I will explain later in this article) If you know what spot you are drafting in (say 4^th overall) this is extremely valuable as you can place yourself in that spot in mock drafts to see who is likely to be available when you will do your real draft. This helps with making last minute decisions on players.

 

Before I get into general guidelines for mock drafting, I will say that I spend more time than the average person analyzing everything about every possible fantasy player. I will be publishing articles following this one that will detail algorithms that I have been developing for a couple of years based on trends I have picked up on to predict a player’s fantasy performance. While they aren’t law, looking at certain factors are extremely useful when picking between two players. Something as little thought about as fantasy playoff strength of schedule could be a major difference maker in drafting one player over another who seemingly was on a similar talent and situational plane.

 

After saying that, here are some general guidelines I attempt to adhere when I mock draft:

 

1. My first and probably most important rule of mock drafting is to be flexible. Drafts are dynamic and unpredictable. While having guidelines, and targets is important, it is even more important to have backup plans. If you only target 1 guy per round, you are likely to be disappointed with your final roster. I play on ESPN.com, and in their draft tool, you have a window where you can drag players that you are thinking about drafting. I am constantly scrolling down to find players that I want on my team and dropping them in there. If I am 2 or 3 picks away, my goal is to have 3 or 4 players in that queue so even if my top few options get picked, I have someone I am still content with taking right there.

 

2. My second most important rule is to understand value. Fantasy drafters who understand value best end up with the best drafts. It’s arguably just as important as the first rule, and part of understanding value means that you have to know the NFL inside and out. I’ll admit to being a little bit preoccupied with reading anything I can get my hands on about the NFL sometimes. I am on Bleacher Report more than I care to admit, I get alerts about basically anything NFL related sent directly to my phone, and I get daily emails updating me about everything that goes on in the football world. Quick shout out to Footballguys.com who send me those daily emails. If you want to stay up to date on the NFL, they are a fantastic place to start.

 

-The first part of understanding value is knowing how to manipulate average draft position. (ADP) ADP is an ever-changing measure of where a player gets drafted. ADP is an average draft spot of any given player taken from hundreds of drafts. For example, for the draft I did in this article, Antonio Brown’s ADP was first overall (1.01), as he is most frequently drafted into that spot. ADP is a good tool for beginners, but advanced owners know how to take advantage of and manipulate ADP. There are a few ways to do this:

 

One way to do this is waiting to draft a player that you want based on his ADP. For example, if you think Andrew Luck is going to light the world on fire this year, and you are sitting in round 3 itching to draft him, check out his ADP: If he is generally being taken closer to round 7, and after 5 other QB’s, it would be wise to wait a couple rounds before pulling the trigger.Especially if only one or two quarterbacks have been selected.

 

-An important part of value and using ADP to your advantage is creating your own player tiers. Take for example the tight end pool this year. Say in this hypothetical situation, you rank them in this order:

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Jordan Reed
3. Greg Olsen
4. Delanie Walker
5. Travis Kelce
6. Coby Fleener
7. Tyler Eifert
8. Gary Barnidge
9. Ladarius Green
10. Zach Ertz
11. Jimmy Graham
12. Julius Thomas

 

These were the top 12 tight ends taken in the draft I conducted for this article. Knowing where they should fall as far as what round is important, but what is even more important than that is knowing which tight ends you feel comfortable starting every week. Say for example, you feel that any of the top 7 tight ends on the above list can be every-week starters. This is valuable information to consider for a few reasons: First is that you should always target players at the end of that tier. These players generally represent the best value in drafts. If you feel that Tyler Eifert can produce similar results to Greg Olsen or Delanie Walker, and you can get Eifert 2 or 3 rounds later than the others, then waiting to take Eifert is the best strategy. You could easily land 2 other quality starters while waiting instead of missing out on high-caliber players in earlier rounds.

 

This goes hand and hand with understanding positional runs. While targeting end of the tier players is a useful strategy for making value picks, this can easily backfire with a positional run. A positional run is where a few players of the same position get unexpectedly taken back-to-back-to-back. For example, say you are in round 5 and were waiting to take Eifert in round 7, then Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce, and Coby Fleener fly off the board. You are now in round 6, knowing that there are a few teams without tight ends between you and your 7^th round pick, and this may pressure you to take Eifert in round 6 instead of waiting until round 7. There is nothing wrong with this if you really think Eifert represents a solid jump in production over the remaining tight ends. It is sometimes better to take Eifert in that 6^th round position rather than be stuck picking up a new tight end off of the waiver wire each week in exchange for a player who may occupy your flex spot most weeks. This is especially true since many tight ends put up number similar to a WR2/WR3. This situation is also dependent on every other position, as the last of your starting RB/WR starting targets may be trickling off the board by this time. This is why I will repeatedly refer back to the first rule of being flexible.

 

-My final note on value is understanding the difference in value of different positions. I think this is the first year that the majority of fantasy owners are finally placing more value on a WR1 than a RB1. (though it has been trending that way for the past few years) For those who don’t know what I mean by WR1 and RB1, a WR1 is a wide receiver that is your top wide receiver, and generally referred to as being in the top 10 or 12 in the league. (Replace RB for WR to get the RB1 explanation) For the last few years, I have taken advantage of the public’s perceived value of RB1s and drafted 2 or 3 receivers in the first 3 rounds, ending up with 2 or 3 WR1s multiple years in a row, and I can probably say that this was among my biggest secrets to success for my last 3 championship teams. Last year I drafted Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, and DeAndre Hopkins in the first 3 rounds and absolutely smoked my competition losing just 2 games all year and cruising to a fantasy championship. All three ended up as WR1’s and in the top 5 scoring for non-QBs. I’ll admit I didn’t know Hopkins would take the next step to becoming an elite receiver, but I felt pretty confident that Beckham Jr. and Jones would put up very solid WR1 stats. Even if you duplicated Hopkins 2014 stats I probably would still have had the best or 2^nd best team in the league.

 

Judging by the fact that these 3 players are all going in the first round this year, I will likely have to find other ways to build winning teams. This doesn’t mean I will stop valuing WR1s over RB1s, however. The statistics show that backs drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts have a much higher bust rate than WR1s and if one of the top few receivers is on the board in round 1 when I’m picking, you better bet he’ll be on my squad come week 1.

 

3. A great piece of advice for fantasy drafting is not being afraid to go against the grain while drafting. If you think a player is going to be better than his ADP, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if he falls to you. If a player who most people ridicule can be a solid contributor to your team, pick him up. Last year I won my fantasy championship with Eli Manning as my starting QB for the majority of the year, and I am not ashamed to say I targeted him in the later part of my draft. I spend most of my early picks filling out my roster and ignoring my QB knowing I could get solid production from Eli after the 9^th round. I never take a QB before round 7 because the drop off from the top few QB’s to the next tier is pretty slight. This is a pretty consistent trend from year to year as the NFL continues to transition to a pass-heavy league. There simply is enough quality quarterbacks to go around, which devalues the position as a whole. I have used this strategy to success for years. Last year, Eli Manning scored an average of 17.4 points per game. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers scored an average of 17.9. Rodgers was probably taken in the round 2-4 range consistently. In rounds 2 and 3 last year I took Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. The trade off of .5 points per game to take one of these two monsters was something I constantly laughed about to myself. I do it every year, yet owners always draft a few QB’s before round 7. Let them.

 

4. Here are some players and situations to watch out for:

 

–Sophomore slumps. They don’t always happen, but it is an added risk. Often after a year of watching tape, defenses can figure out how to slow down top rookies. The quarterback position is often susceptible to the second year slowdown. Third and fourth year players are much more likely to break out than second year players. This is especially true for wide receivers. I will keep coming back to DeAndre Hopkins, as last year (his third NFL campaign) was a breakout year despite everyone knowing how talented he was when got drafted back in 2013.

 

–Inconsistent players. My quintessential example is Desean Jackson. As an Eagle’s fan, I loved watching him torch helpless defensive backs for long touchdown’s while he was an Eagle. Unfortunately, his weekly fantasy output often depends on one play, which doesn’t always happen. If he doesn’t catch that long touchdown, often he isn’t worth a fantasy start and that inconsistency can be maddening as a fantasy owner. I usually avoid these players like the plague. Watch out for Will Fuller who I see as a very similar player. Another example is Torrey Smith. I would rather target players who get consistent production, and provide a base level of fantasy production that is usually what I consider “starter worthy.” For RB/WR I expect at least 10 points per week, and for QB’s I expect 15.

 

Take note of 2 examples here that put up the same numbers on average during a 7-week span. They both averaged 11.86 points per game. If a player’s weekly fantasy output looks like example A: 10, 14, 8, 17, 12, 9, 13, that is what I consider fairly consistent production. If a player’s weekly output looks like example B: 10, 6, 19, 4, 3, 20, 21 this is what I consider inconsistent production. The reason being that example A will never lose you a week because of his production. He May not carry your team in any given week, but if you have a roster full of consistent producers, none of your players will have to carry your team in a given week, and any big games will be a very pleasant surprise and not the expectation. Example B may carry your team 3 of those weeks, but in 3 others he may cost your team the victory. Plus, do you really want the headache of trying to predict when those big games will come?

 

–The dreaded running-back-by-committee (RBBC) Running backs who carry the vast majority of the workload are an ever-dying breed in the NFL. This places a premium on the few who still are. This doesn’t mean you can’t get value out of players in a committee, but always look to draft versatile players who will get the most attention in an offense. By my count, there are less than 10 backs in the NFL who would be considered full-time starters. Most of these will go in the first 3 rounds. If you grab one after that, you probably got a huge steal.

 

–Patriot’s running backs. You may think I’m joking, but the last time the Pats had a back worth a high fantasy pick it was Corey Dillon back in the early 2000’s. (I won’t count the one random season Stevan Ridley had a respectable season because it could just have easily been Shane Vereen, who many projected to have the better season that year. Then of course Ridley faded into a nobody) The patriots find players that they can exploit single talents better than any team in the league. Look no further than Legarrette Blount (battering ram) and Dion Lewis. (jitterbug pass catcher) Both players will probably put up decent numbers, but the way the Patriots change their game plan from week-to-week with little predictability, Blount could have 20 carries one game and 2 the next without notice. It’s just a headache that I usually choose to avoid. This would fall under both the RBBC category and inconsistent play category, which is why I think it is worth mentioning as a stand alone category.

 

–Rookies. I am not saying avoid them completely, but don’t ride the hype train. Rookie performances like Odell Beckham Jr.’s are rare. Often they can be a good value if they live up to hype early and you draft them late, but the only rookie you should consider drafting high this year is Ezekiel Elliot. He is an exception for a few reasons: 1. He is a top-5 talent in the NFL at the running back position. Players like him only get drafted every few years. The most recent examples are Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson. While he has a different style than those two, he is ultra-talented and very versatile. 2. He landed in a situation with arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Elliot is being mocked in the first round, and I find it difficult to argue that ADP. I think we can all be fairly confident that barring injury or some crazy Jerry Jones-ism, the rookie will rush for over 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns and be featured in the Cowboys offense. That’s his floor, not his ceiling, and that is round 1-3 material. The reason to draft him in round 1 is the hype. If he falls to round 2, he may be too hard to pass up, but drafting a player who has never taken an NFL snap in round 1 is also a risk. Don’t draft any rookie WR’s high, especially this year. It’s likely you can find any of them on the waiver wire mid-season when a few will begin adjust to NFL defenses and put together a few nice games. I outlined a few mid-late round rookie targets in my previous articles.

 

–The 3^rd string WR on a team, with expectations to start him consistently. There are exceptions to this rule as with every rule. John Brown managed a 1,000 yard seasons as the Cardinals 3^rd wide receiver, but My intention is to draft players that can perform better than that. I draft with the intention to fill my WR 3 spot with a WR1 or 2. This is because of the value I place on WR’s. I honestly try and have all my WR’s be the top option on their team if I can. This year’s example might be Travis Benjamin. He is likely behind Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson on the Charger’s roster, yet some owner’s will likely take him with intentions to start him as a WR2, WR3, or flex option. While I encourage having as much depth as possible, don’t let Benjamin be your best WR2 starter option. You can likely do better. Depending on the offense, I would even avoid WR2’s. Prior to last year, Jermaine Kearse was Seattle’s WR2 in a run heavy offense and was utterly irrelevant in fantasy football that year.

 

–Handcuff running backs. To me, unless you have the power to predict injuries, drafting backup running backs is a very low percentage gamble that usually ends up with that pick on the waiver wire week 2 or 3. Yet some people will handcuff their prized RB1 with a round 8-11 pick. Don’t waste a pick on a player like that. Take the upside of another player, and pick up players during the season that become valuable as the season progresses.

 

5. Another important, but not always mentioned thing to keep in mind is knowing the rules of your league, and it should really go without saying. If you play PPR, players projected to make a lot of catches are put at a premium, and this should reflect your draft strategy.

6. Sleepers to target: Old faces in new places, new offensive approach, players coming     off injury and larger opportunities are the 4 situations to keep in mind when targeting sleepers. A few layers who fit these categories are (not that they are necessarily wise choices) Rueben Randle, (old face new place) Ryan Tannehill, (new offensive approach) Kelvin Benjamin, (injured last year) and Donte Moncrieff. (Larger opportunity) Sleepers don’t have to be late round picks either. If Andrew Luck goes back to being Andrew Luck, Moncrief is the number 2 receiving option and likely in line for a pretty big year if he can take advantage of the opportunity. The only question mark is lack of a proven season. He is a prime breakout candidate as a third-year player who will finally be a WR2 on the Colts offense, and probably worth a WR2 draft grade.

 

This concludes the first part of the article where I go over my strategies for mock drafting. Stay tuned for next week when I will publish a round-by-round strategy guide where you can see these rules in action in an actual mock draft, along with additional insights. Looking forward to seeing you back here next week!