So day 1 of the 2016 NFL draft is in the books, and fantasy owners will want to know how this draft affects their draft. I’ll try and reserve my comments on how teams in the first round drafted, because reality and fantasy are two very different worlds. This draft was much more about reality, evidenced by the fact that only 8 of the 31 picks last night were offensive skill-positions. (QB, RB, WR) The 2016 draft will be remembered for it’s defensive depth, and going into the day 2 of the draft, there is still a ton of starting defensive talent out there.

 

With that said, we can let the NFL front offices worry more about their defense’s because in fantasy football, offense is the name of the game. The fantasy world just welcomed some new talent, and it’s never too early to start planning for your next draft. Here are some players that just got drafted and will change the fantasy landscape:

 

Ezekiel Elliot: RB Dallas Cowboys

 

This should be the pick that affects the top of fantasy drafts the most this summer. The last 2 seasons, the Cowboys have had the top offensive line in the NFL and have had Demarco Murray rush for over 1,800 yards and Darren McFadden rushing for over 1,000 yards despite not truly starting until about week 7. Elliot should fall somewhere between production-wise, as he is easily as talented (if not more talented) than both players. Running backs have arguably the easiest learning curve of any position transitioning from college, so my money has Elliot as a sure-fire first round fantasy option. He could easily be the top player in fantasy football from day 1 and for years to come. If Tony Romo stays healthy and keeps defense’s honest, Elliot should put up at least 1,500 total yards and his fair share of touchdowns. I would expect Alfred Morris to pilfer a few scores, and McFadden to give him a breather, but you don’t take a back 4^th overall without playing him as your full-time starter right out of the gate.

 

Corey Coleman: WR Cleveland Browns

 

Coleman is a bit raw, but very talented. Any highlight real will affirm his athleticism. The Browns need a lot of things, and without Travis Benjamin, receiver was definitely among primary needs. Credit Cleveland for trading back twice to get a gifted player and more draft picks because the fate of this team for the next decade arguably falls on hitting on at least 50% of the picks they have in the next 2 years. Back to fantasy: Coleman isn’t Josh Gordon (which is a good thing and a bad thing) but he will be their number 1 receiver from day 1. If Benjamin can put up 966 yards and 5 scores with Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, and Austin Davis as his starting QB’s then I think Coleman can do at least as well with RGIII as the projected starter. I respect Hue Jackson more than any coach Cleveland has had in…well…maybe since they re-joined the NFL, so I trust that Coleman will be worth a mid-late round flier with high upside in your next draft.

 

Will Fuller: WR Houston Texans

 

The Texans took Fuller ahead of Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell. I think both are more complete receivers than Fuller, but that won’t stop Fuller from taking Houston’s offense to new levels. I don’t think it’s farfetched to compare Fuller to DeSean Jackson because of their size and speed. If the Texans think that last year’s third round pick Jaelen Strong can turn into a player comparable to Treadwell, then this pick looks like one that can propel the franchise into the thick of the AFC playoffs. Houston is set on Defense, and now it has its QB and RB of the future. Hopkins will finally have receivers that can move the chains if he is double-teamed. Jackson put up over 900 yards and a pair of scores his rookie season, and I think it’s fair to expect that Fuller can match that production as long as Brock Osweiler is up to that task. Personally, I hate players that rely on the big play in fantasy, and in his inaugural NFL season, I think that is where the Notre Dame product will find his niche. He is a boom-or-bust play, worthy of a waiver-wire pickup if he gets hot at any point and starts to prove he is a legit number 2 receiver. Don’t draft him with expectations greater than the occasional flex play.

 

Honorable mentions:

 

Even with the defensive heavy draft, there are some names that fantasy owners should keep in mind. The defenses of the Raiders, Jaguars, Giants and Bears got major face-lifts in free agency, and all 4 of these teams’ drafted top defensive players in round 1. All except the Bears got major upgrades to their back ends, and Chicago now has their most promising linebacker corps since Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher roamed the midway. Expect all 4 teams to have D/ST’s that are at least worthy of a streaming start, if not more.

 

I also don’t know how anyone is going to score points on the Cardinals this year. When you add Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche to a team that will get a healthy Honey Badger back, you get a downright nasty defense. With the Broncos, Panthers, Patriots, and Seahawks all looking like teams making lateral movements at best since the season ended, the Cardinals are pushing to be Super Bowl favorites early. There really aren’t any major holes on this team, and they will likely take the best player available approach for the rest of the draft. Take their D/ST in the top 3 and start them every week. The league has been put on notice: Fear the red birds.

 

Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson are both very talented, but find themselves in situations where they will not be asked to succeed as soon as many first round picks are. Treadwell has #1 receiver talent, but with the presence of Stefon Diggs, Jarius Wright, and Charles Johnson, the former Ole Miss Rebel will need to earn his spot on the depth chart. (Which really shouldn’t be a long-term issue) The more concerning problem is landing in a run-first offense with all-world running back Adrian Peterson and downfield-challenged Teddy Bridgewater. Even if Treadwell gets a top 2 spot on the receiver pecking order, expect his numbers to be reserved because of the offense he plays in, especially as a rookie. He is an interesting dynasty league option however as many scouts and draft analysts pegged him as the best receiver in the class with the potential to be a faster Alshon Jeffery.

 

Doctson has a better QB and a more pass-happy offense than Treadwell, but Washington already has 3 receiving threats (DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon) that will take priority over him. The Redskins needed defense, but Jackson and Garcon could both be gone in 2 years, so the Redskins saw a future need and a talented player to grab and develop. Don’t expect much in year 1 fantasy-wise.

 

Other notables:

 

Quarterbacks went 1 and 2 overall this year, as they did last year. Jared Goff will come in and start right away for the Rams. Los Angeles is a defensive team with arguably the most promising running back in the NFL. His job will be primarily to hand it off to Todd Gurley and make the best of one of the worst supporting casts in the league. Goff will be fantasy relevant one day…if the Rams ever find any receiving talent. Don’t bother drafting him until that happens.

 

Carson Wentz falls into an interesting situation. If the Eagles can throw a bucket of cold water on Sam Bradford and get him to stop crying like the overpriced baby that he is, the situation is actually set up very well for Wentz and the Eagles to succeed long-term. Bradford should start, and finish the year as the starter as long as he stays healthy. (which he hasn’t ever done) This would give time for Wentz to sit and watch how the pro-game is played, since he hasn’t even played against top talent in college. Then next year throw him out there with a young team on the rise with a supporting cast that could grow into something with more positive developments from players like Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. This pick can’t even begin to be evaluated until probably 2018, and that is the earliest you should expect any fantasy returns.

 

As I live in Denver, I guess I should note that Paxton Lynch is basically Brock Osweiler, except several years developmentally behind. Not that the Broncos had great QB play during last year’s Super Bowl run, but I wouldn’t expect either Lynch or captain butt-fumble to earn a Super Bowl appearance even with the talent they still have on the other side of the ball. Lynch shouldn’t be drafted in fantasy for at least a year, and a year of starting would help his learning curve on a team that will not need to rely on offense to win every week.

 

The draft slide of Laremy Tunsil was the story of last night, and while it could reportedly cost him about $13 million, it wasn’t as bad as the slide of La’el Collins last year who went from first round lock to undrafted. The Dolphins got one of the best tackles the draft has seen in a decade, and with a solid mentor or two, he could set his mind right and become a future hall of famer. He’s that good. The problem is he is young, obviously has a horrible agent, and no head between his shoulders. Living in a state where marijuana is legal, and players like Von Miller can be caught smoking weed yet still can win a Super Bowl MVP a few years later, this looks like a great steal for the Dolphins as long as they can get him on the straight and narrow for his playing career. This should benefit Ryan Tannehill the most who has been under siege from pass-rushers since being drafted in 2012. If the Dolphins can find and correctly utilize a running back, this offense could finally take off under new coach Adam Gase. Watch the next few rounds tonight, because it could very well propel this team to new heights.

Arizona Cardinals:

There aren’t many ways to end a season that are more brutal than what the Cardinals had to endure in the NFC championship game. Losing 49-15 after having a regular season record of 13-3 doesn’t usually happen. You can be sure that the Cards will be out for revenge after that smack down at the end of the year.

This is one of the most complete teams in the league, loaded with fantasy stars, so expect another playoff run, and be sure to grab a few Cardinals in your draft.

Starting off with the QB, Carson Palmer saw major career resurgence last season throwing for 4,671 yards and 35 touchdowns to only 11 picks. At 36 years old, this was easily his best season he has ever had as a pro. When you look at the offense around him, it is easy to see why. The line is one of the best, if not the best in the league, so Palmer usually has superb protection and an outstanding run game. The losses of guard Jonathan Cooper and tackle Bobbie Massie are softened with the addition of former All-Pro guard Evan Mathis and the presence of last year’s first round pick, tackle DJ Humphries. His receivers are superb as well. Take Palmer as one of the top 5 QB’s and watch him tear it up again.

Larry Fitzgerald experienced quite the renaissance as well. 2015 was Fitzgerald’s first 1000 yard season since 2011. Fitz wasn’t the only pass-catcher with over 1,000 yards on the year; John Brown squeaked by the milestone with 1,003 yards on the year to go along with 7 touchdowns. Even Michael Floyd got in on the fun with 849 yards and 6 scores. There were plenty of Carson Palmer missiles to go around, and that made for 3 fantasy relevant receivers last season. Fitzgerald played like a WR1, which was a pleasant surprise for all who drafted him. I would see if you can grab him as more of a WR2 because of his age, but he may go as early as round 2 in drafts because well, he’s Larry Fitzgerald.

John Brown made a lot of big plays en-route to his best season yet. He played like a low end WR2. With all of the moving parts in this offense, Brown won’t consistently put up big numbers. If you can use him as more of a flex/WR3 play, you will probably get better value from him.

Floyd is also a big-play threat, but he gets targeted less than Brown does. He isn’t much more than a bye week fill-in. There is even more speed and skill at the receiver position, but because of the abundance of quality players at this position, more than half of them aren’t fantasy relevant.

The running back position is another deep one as well. There is the Johnson’s, (Chris and David) Andre Ellington, and even Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan taylor get some carries here and there. The best back on this team is David Johnson. Just watch the guy play and it is blatantly obvious that this kid was built to move the football. I think head coach Bruce Arians got that message loud and clear when he averaged almost 160 yards per game in weeks 12-14 where he got to start due to injuries. The Cardinals elected to re-sign Chris Johnson, who was yet another veteran with a comeback season, running for over 800 yards before getting injured. He was forced to miss the last 4 games, which is where we saw David Johnson run wild. Bruce Arians is one of the most respected coaches in the league, and what I would expect this time share to look like is this: David Johnson gets about 65% of the carries, Chris Johnson gets about 20%, and The other 15% is split between Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor, and Kerwynn Williams. I am guessing that either Taylor or Williams (or both) will get cut, but Ellington should command most of that last 15% anyway. Ellington should also get some good 3^rd down opportunities as well. This is definitely a time share to keep a close watch on in training camp and pre-season to see how Bruce Arians wants to divvy up the carries. In all likelihood, the starter will be a 1^st or 2^nd round pick, and that starter will probably be David Johnson.

Until a tight end proves to be a consistent receiving threat, none of them on this team should be drafted.

This defense, like the Seahawks is one of the best in the league. With the addition of Chandler Jones, this squad could be even better, which is scary. There are only minor weaknesses on this team, and none worth pointing out. Draft this defense, expect to play them every week and get excellent results. This team is in a position to draft the best player available in every round. There are no big holes anywhere on the team, and this upcoming draft should be about the future of the team.

 

Los Angeles Rams:

Bye St. Louis. Hello, L.A. This team will move down to a city that is hopefully less accepting of head coach Jeff Fisher than St. Louis. The belief that he is one of the most overrated coaches in the league is not a view that is unique to me. Fisher has not had a winning season since 2008 back when he was with the Titans and Chris Johnson was a rookie. Maybe now that the Rams will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks, the world will be able to see that Fisher isn’t coaching his team to compete with the modern nuances of the NFL. His defense looks great as it has since he has been here, but his offense is so poor that it doesn’t seem to matter how good the defense plays. Case and point: He named Case Keenum the unquestioned starter at quarterback for the upcoming season….that is until today when the Rams threw all caution to the wind and traded for the number 1 overall pick in this years draft.

According to multiple reports, the Rams gave away their 1^st round pick (15 overall) as well as both of their 2^nd round picks, their 3^rd round pick, and their 1^st round and 3^rd round picks next year. The Rams will also reportedly receive the Titans 4^th and 6^th round picks in the deal. That is one heck of a haul for the Titans, who will have the opportunity to add a lot of young talent to their roster, and in exchange the Rams will likely take Quarterback prospect Jared Goff out of Cal. I know the Rams needed a quarterback badly, but as of right now this move looks like it could benefit the Titans way more than the Rams. Los Angeles has no receiving threats unless you count Tavon Austin who is more of a gadget player than a go-to receiving option. Seeing as the highest pick the Rams will have in the next 2 years aside from the 1^st overall pick is a 2^nd round pick next year, the opportunities to add receiving talent look slim. The move could pay off a few years down the road, but right now I am calling this a win for the Titans, who only have to hit on half of the picks they received to make this deal look good for them.

The only player on offense you should own in fantasy is Todd Gurley. (And actually maybe Tavon Austin, but we will get to him later) As a player in a vacuum, it is hard not to love Gurley. A lot of people have called him the most gifted back to come out of college since Adrian Peterson was drafted back in 2007. This may be true, but is he worth a first round draft pick on your team? Let’s dig a little deeper into his play last year and the team around him to see if he is a worthy investment. So last year Gurley played in 13 games and rushed for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry. He also added 21 catches for 188 yards. The numbers look pretty good so far. When I take a look at the game logs, I am a little less impressed. Let’s just exclude the first game that he played in against Pittsburgh where he had 6 carries for 9 yards. This was the first game back from an ACL Injury, and there are a lot of nerves that go into stepping back onto the field after an injury like that. Then, he showed why he was the 10^th overall pick in the draft over the next 4 games in which he averaged 141.5 yards per game, and had 3 scores. He had a run of at least 48 yards in each of those games, showing off that long speed.

Then the Rams lost their next 5 games, and couldn’t put up more than 18 points in any of those games despite 3 more Gurley scores. Over this stretch, the rest of the league seemed to figure out that if you stack the box with 8 defenders, the Rams aren’t much of a threat to toss it over the top. For that stretch, Gurley only averaged 3.29 yards per carry, and 52 yards per game. I will cede the fact that some of these teams were among the league leaders at defending the run, but in his 2^nd career game Gurley ran for 146 yards against the Arizona Cardinals who were 6^th in the league vs. the run. This could be because teams feared the secondary, but the Arizona secondary has excellent range and they help with the run maybe better than any team in the league outside of the Seahawks.

Anyhow, Gurley had one of his biggest games of the season following this 5 game skid, and pushed the Rams to a 3 game win streak to finish out the year. The season was a good stretch, bad stretch, good stretch sandwich. It’s the bad stretch that worries me a little, and I think it is more related to the Ram’s inability to pass the ball. Luckily for Gurley, the Rams have one of the best front 7’s in the league, and an above average secondary. This defense keeps games close, which allows them to run Gurley into the ground. On volume and talent alone, Gurley should be worth a first round pick. But is he in the right situation to be the first overall pick? How about the 2^nd overall pick? Well you will have to wait until my fantasy mock drafts come out in the pre-season, but because of his division and lack of any other options on offense to take the heat off, there are likely better options to take the top spot in your draft.

The Rams D/ST finished as a fringe starter last year. They were a great play when the matchup was right, having owned them for parts on the season myself. They are worth drafting, but not until the last couple of rounds, but don’t be afraid to stream a defense some weeks when they pull a strong offensive team.

I’d like to talk shortly about Tavon Austin now. Austin had an interesting year because he had an equal amount of carries and catches. Exactly 52 each. He had almost identical yardage totals for rushing and receiving as well. He totaled 907 combined yards and 9 scores plus a return touchdown. Those 10 total scores are what made him valuable. Austin is an electric player who is capable of taking it the distance on any play, but it’s hard to rely on him for consistent points. He is not a bad flex option, but expecting 10 touchdowns from a player like him year in and year out is a lot to ask. Percy Harvin never hit double-digit touchdowns in a season, and I need to see consistent proof before I believe that Austin can do it again.

 

San Francisco 49ers:

This team continues it’s quite magnificent fall from glory. From 2011 to 2013, this team had 3 straight years with playoff wins. Unfortunately, an 8-8 record sounds like a pipe dream. This team doesn’t have a lot to be excited about at the moment. This is a similar situation to the Los Angeles Ram’s situation. The team actually has high-potential players on all three levels of the defense, yet not only does the offense put it in bad situations, it can’t seem to play up to it’s own potential. The defense is worth monitoring on the waiver wire, but probably shouldn’t be drafted in fantasy.

The ongoing soap opera this offseason for the 49ers has been the question of will they unload Colin Kaepernick? There was a trade in place to send him to the quarterback-desperate Broncos, but that didn’t pan out because the Broncos wouldn’t pay his salary. Why anyone would want him in the first place is a mystery to me. I was actually intrigued to see if Chip Kelly could utilize Kaepernick’s running ability to revitalize his downward-spiraling career. After the aforementioned trade that landed their division rivals at the top of this years draft, the chances the 49ers draft a quarterback with the intention to start him immediately have significantly diminished.

The 49ers are yet another team that remained quiet this free agency period, and in doing so they leave the status of the team to the upcoming draft. The 49ers have drafted fairly well over the past decade, their main problem being a lack of a quarterback and receiving options.

The only real fantasy option on the 49ers is running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde has yet to get the chance to really establish himself in the NFL. His rookie season he spent behind celebrated running back Frank Gore. Last year he spent half of the season injured. The offensive line isn’t what it was when it propelled the 49ers to the Super Bowl just a few years ago. Without staple guards Mike Iupati and Alex Boone, this team’s ground game will be deficient. With no offensive weapons outside of Hyde to speak ill of, this teams offense (as of now) will have to rely on Hyde the way the Ram’s offense will rely on Todd Gurley. The thing is that Hyde isn’t Gurley, and therefore isn’t worth a spot in the top 2 maybe 3 rounds. He could be worth a gamble in round 4 if the 49ers can improve their offensive line enough by the time week 1 rolls around. I like his value better after round 4.

Seattle Seahawks:

As long as Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are getting paychecks from the Seahawks, Seattle will be home to a competitive football team. That tough defense doesn’t hurt either. The problem is that the Seahawks have some big holes to fill before they get their Super Bowl aspirations back.

When Russel Okung decided to become his own agent and sign with the Denver Broncos, the mass exodus of anybody with talent on the Seahawks offensive line seemed to be complete. The Seahawks struggled, especially in the first half of the season, with handling pressure on the quarterback. Luckily for Seattle, Russell Wilson took his game to a new level in the 2^nd half of the season. He and receiver Doug Baldwin were elite fantasy options from week 8 onward. With Okung gone, offensive like should be the Seahawks primary concern in the draft.

With that said, offensive line isn’t the only hole on this team. Thomas Rawls looked excellent when he played last year, but without Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks may want to find some insurance in case Rawls was a one-year wonder. The defense, while very good, is not as complete as it was when it carried the team to 2 straight Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. The depth behind Richard Sherman and Jeremy Lane at corner needs to be addressed, and the spot vacated by linebacker Bruce Irvin also needs to be figured out. I would guess the draft would provide options for all of these needs.

Fantasy wise, the first Seahawk off the board should be Thomas Rawls. The rookie back averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game in which he was given more than 15 carries. The sample size was small, (6 games) but given that he will be given every opportunity to fill in the role vacated by Lynch, he should be drafted in the first 2 rounds without a doubt. This is especially true if the Seahawks can get any kind of offensive line upgrade.

Russell Wilson or Doug Baldwin should be next off the board for this team. I would say Wilson is the safer pick seeing as Baldwin only has half a season of elite performance under his belt where Wilson has at least a couple seasons of quality work under his belt. Wilson is a top-5 fantasy QB, so expect him to be drafted in the top 5 rounds. Baldwin is going to be a tricky player to draft. I personally wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting him before the 4^th round, and maybe even later than that given that his late season surge came out of basically nowhere. He has always been a talented receiver, but the Seahawks don’t force-feed any receivers the ball in their run-heavy offense….or at least they didn’t. I would expect the Seahawks to become more versatile, but expecting elite production from Baldwin may be far-fetched. I would draft him with the expectation of playing him as a flex option and hoping for better.

Jimmy Graham is another Seahawk worth drafting, and I would expect a bounce-back season after his first season with the team seemed to be more of a “get to know you” season. Graham is arguably the 2^nd most talented tight end in the league, and deserves to be a top-10 tight end drafted. I think rounds 4-8 are a good place to draft him depending on how many teams are in your league and where other tight ends start getting picked. He should probably be drafted after Gronk, Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Reed, but after that I wouldn’t call you crazy to make Graham the next tight end off the board. I would say his draft stock should be around the same as Travis Kelce’s.

The Seattle D/ST should also be drafted as a starter, but as with all defenses, in the later rounds of the draft. They are definitely worth starting on a regular basis, but I wouldn’t draft them as the first defense off the board that perennially gets overrated and picked in rounds 8-10. Use those rounds to add some solid depth to your team, or pick some high-risk, high-reward prospects.