Indianapolis Colts:

Even with quarterback Andrew Luck injured for much of last season, the year as a whole can still be considered a disappointment. The offense that was supposed to be one of the best in the league finished 28^th in yards per game, and 24^th in points per game. To make matters worse, they were 26^th in total defense.

The team has done basically nothing in free agency, and will look to the draft to address their many issues on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Colts need help on the offensive line. Despite the name recognition that this line has, it let the offense down, particularly in run blocking where they ranked 27^th in the league according to footballoutsiders.com. Football outsiders ranked them average in pass protection as well. When you have a young franchise quarterback like Andrew Luck, priority number 1 is to protect him. The best ways to do that are with a line that can open running lanes and take pressure off of him as well as make sure he isn’t constantly under duress.

Running back Frank Gore had only his 3^rd season rushing for under 1,000 yards, and his first since 2010 where he missed 5 games. He also averaged a career worst 3.7 yards per carry. Offensive line probably played a role in those numbers, but Gore is also one of the oldest running backs in the league, and has been playing since 2005. The depth on this team at the position is pretty thin, so I would expect it to be another high priority for the Colts in the draft.

The wide receiver position has depth despite the release of veteran Andre Johnson. Young receivers T.Y Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett are more than capable of scoring points, especially with a healthy Luck. Hilton had an off year without Luck, but should be a low-end WR2 with plenty of upside. If this team has a quick turnaround, he could play like a top 10 player at this position. Look for him in round 4, where his value will start to become hard to pass up. He may even go earlier. Moncrief is a solid flex option in rounds 6-8, and seeing as he will be a starting wide-out, I think he could perform like a WR2. Like Hilton, he could easily get drafted before his value starts to increase, which means other owners will be betting heavily on the high reward potential here. Dorsett should not be drafted, as he is a 3^rd WR and one that should only be an occasional deep threat in this offense.

Indy made an interesting move by letting Coby Fleener walk and sign a big deal with the Saints, but keeping Dwayne Allen after catching just 16 passes last year. He agreed to a 4-year, $ 29.4 million deal to stay in the blue and white. Not sure how 1 catch per game warrants over $7 million per year, but nobody is naming Ryan Grigson GM of the year anytime soon. Don’t bother drafting Allen, he is a better blocker than he is a pass-catcher.

Even though Luck was hurt most of the year, he didn’t look good for the time he was on the field. This could be because of a number of reasons. (Line play, weak running game, opposing matchups etc…) trying to decide when to pull the trigger on Luck in your fantasy draft is a very tough call. There is no denying his talent and his weapons, and he doesn’t have to be efficient to be a viable fantasy starter. To be safe, I would peg him as a low-end starter with upside. If he falls to the mid-late rounds (rounds 7-11) He is definitely worth a shot. If he gets any improvements on the line or in the running game, his draft stock will shoot up.

The defense should not be drafted, or even played in any format until they add some more talent to their front 7. Losing leading tackler Jerrell Freeman to the Bears doesn’t help at all. The Colts should address Defense with every pick in the draft that isn’t spent on an offensive lineman or a running back.

Houston Texans:

The Texans made two huge splashes in free agency by signing quarterback Brock Osweiler away from the Broncos and running back Lamar Miller away from the Dolphins.

I’ll start with the Miller signing which may have been my favorite offseason signing. Miller was criminally under-utilized in Miami due to their inability to run an NFL-caliber offense. When he signed a 4-year, $26 million contract, he put himself in an offense that has traditionally relied on a bell-cow back, and Miller can run for 1,500 yards in this offense with the talent at offensive line that this team possesses. I usually don’t bet that high on a new guy on a new team, but this seems like a perfect fit for a very talented young man. If he isn’t gobbled up by the late first round, then you should grab him in the 2^nd with no doubt in your mind you got a steal.

Now let’s move onto the big money signing. At $18 million per year over the next 4 years, the Texans took an immense gamble on this signing. Osweiler has started a grand total of 7 games in his NFL career. It’s anyone’s guess as to how he will fair with the Texans. Learning under Peyton Manning for his first few years is definitely a plus, but lack of experience may lead to some growing pains. Bill O’brien is a good coach capable of getting the most out of his QB’s, so don’t expect Brock to fall flat on his face. I think he should be drafted as a QB2, and if he starts to show some promise, could be a decent spot start. Any team with DeAndre Hopkins can make a serviceable quarterback into looking like a superstar on any given week. Brian Hoyer had a few games with starter fantasy numbers last year basically because Hopkins exploded.

As Hopkins proved last year, he is a top 5 WR in this league regardless of who throws him the ball. If Osweiler is a step up from Hoyer, he could put up the best stats in the league. A late first or an early 2^nd round pick is the latest he should go.

Houston has some other talent at wide receiver as well. Cecil Shorts III and Jaelen Strong are both great compliments to Hopkins. Strong has potential to be a great touchdown threat on the opposite side of Hopkins. I thought he was a major steal in the 3^rd round of last year’s draft, but he was also allegedly caught with marijuana earlier this month, so that could be a setback for him if he receives disciplinary action. Shorts is no more than a flex play at best, and is better off as depth or on the waiver wire unless your options are slim.

There is a pair of gifted young tight ends on this roster. Ryan Griffin and CJ Fiedorowicz are both smart pass catchers. Look for them to keep a role in this offense that is slightly below fantasy relevancy. If one of them starts to catch fire, add him quickly as the Texans will probably be looking to see who will be the go-to number 2 option behind Hopkins this year. I think Ryan Griffin could be that guy if he stays healthy.

This defense is spearheaded by freak of nature JJ Watt, and as long as that is the case, the defense will have the potential to be among the best. Watt isn’t the only quality starter on this unit however. The whole front 7 played fantastic last year, especially down the stretch. The cornerbacks on this team are also very talented and capable of shutting down the league’s best receivers. The defense as a whole is capable of being one of the top-5 defenses this upcoming season with high sack and turnover potential. Draft them accordingly in beginning of the last couple of rounds.

This is a team that should probably win the AFC South again. The Texans are in position to draft the best player available as they addressed their major holes with the Miller and Osweiler signings.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

Is that a chill I feel? No? Just Hell freezing over? Oh ok that sounds more like it because the Jaguars….drum roll please….may just be a relevant team this upcoming year! There is some genuine excitement around this team for the first time in probably about a decade. The offense finally can score points! 2^nd year QB Blake Bortles threw for 35 touchdowns, and the jags finally field a very reliable receiving corps.

There was a ton of money thrown around by this club in free agency. Jets castoff Chris Ivory scored a $35 million contract spread out over the next 5 years. Super Bowl champion Malik Jackson landed one of the biggest contracts of all time; to the tune of 6 years and $90 million. Safety Tashaun Gipson added to the frenzy by signing a 5-year $35.5 million deal. $160.5 million: three new players.

If you couple the additions of Jackson and Gipson with the return of Dante Fowler, who missed his entire rookie season with an ACL injury, this defense may actually be able to keep opponents scoring down below the level of the defense that last year allowed the 2^nd most points in the league. I still wouldn’t draft them as they are young and unproven as a group, but keep an eye out for a possible streaming play here or there.

Blake Bortles (or as I like to call him; “Teenage Mutant Ninja Bortles”) finished as the 4^th ranked QB last year. I love his weapons, especially former Penn State Nittany Lion Allen Robinson. I am predicting that Bortles doesn’t finish as high as he did last year. He definitely proved he can sling the rock, but his 18 interceptions and 58.6 completion percentage prove he still needs to improve his decision-making. I don’t think there will be a huge dip in numbers, but as the Jags improve defensively and in the run game, they shouldn’t be forced to throw the ball as much as they had to last year. (Almost 38 pass attempts per game last season) This should cut down on the turnovers, but Bortles will have to improve his completion percentage to up his yardage total. Chris Ivory will likely steal away some touchdowns that Bortles may have been forced to throw last year. I am predicting a more efficient Bortles this upcoming season, but not higher fantasy numbers. I would take him as a solid QB2 and play him with good matchups, especially if he has to keep airing it out the way he did last year due to an underperforming defense. If a game looks like a potential shootout, put Bortles and Robinson the game.

If head coach Gus Bradley reveals how Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon will split carries, then you can use that information to gauge where to draft them. As of right now, I would Imagine Ivory would be the starter because they are paying the guy $7 million per year. This would essentially make Yeldon a change of pace back and maybe a 3^rd down back. If that is the case, Ivory is a low-end RB2 and Yeldon isn’t really fantasy relevant for anything other than a handcuff. This situation could be fluid as well as Ivory is a newcomer and Yeldon is only in his 2^nd year in the league. Keep an eye on this one throughout training camps.

The wideouts in Jacksonville are very Talented. Allen Robinson is a stud. He was part of that ridiculous draft class for wide receivers that saw Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans go in the top 10. Any other year he would probably have been a first round draft pick. Don’t forget about Allen Hurns either. The undrafted receiver out of Miami has proved he belongs as the 2^nd option in this offense, and a consistent touchdown threat. He was a WR2 last year, and I would expect that to continue into next year. However, I like his value more as a WR3 or flex option due to the fact that he isn’t the top option on his own offense, and the potential for the Jags to have a more balanced offense.

I think Julius Thomas may be the most overpaid tight end in the league. Don’t be tempted into drafting him as a starter this year. There are better options, and Bortles still hasn’t been able to develop a respectable rapport with him. He is a capable tight end for a bye week or injury fill-in, but I can probably think of 12-14 other players at his position I would rather have than him.

A lot of people are mocking safety Jalen Ramsey to the Jaguars at the number 5 pick. I think there is no way this happens for 2 reasons: First is, I don’t think he will make it to the number 5 pick. Many analysts are calling him the drafts best player, and I think he definitely gets picked before number 5. All 4 teams in front of him could use his services. Reason number 2 is that Jacksonville already has a pair of talented safeties in Tashaun Gipson and Jonathan Cyprien. The Jags may even trade back from this spot if a QB-needy team really wants either Goff or Wentz. (Assuming they both last til number 5 overall) In my opinion, if Vernon Hargreaves is still available at number 5, he should be the pick. I know he doesn’t fit the mold of the modern NFL CB, (over 6 feet tall, long arms) but if you throw on the tape from this guy, he shuts down everyone. Corner is probably the biggest need on this team as well, so if Ramsey isn’t available, the former Florida star is the obvious choice to me.

Tennessee Titans:

It was another rough season for the Titans. Finishing with a league worst 3-13 record, they will get the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft. It has been rumored that Tennessee is shopping the pick, and why wouldn’t they? There are QB-needy teams out there that would love to lock themselves into grabbing Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. Since the Titans already have Marcus Mariota, there is no reason to take another QB unless they plan to hold one ransom after the draft for picks. If they can move back and take a high quality player while still getting a ransom of draft picks in the deal, it should definitely be considered a win.

The Titans have not made a ton of moves this offseason. They signed WR Rishard Matthews away from the Dolphins, and swapped draft picks with the Eagles to land Demarco Murray and his large contract. They also just signed Cardinals cast-off Rashad Johnson to play safety. The addition of Matthews gives the Titans 5 average-ish wide receivers. Kendall Wright was the leader of the pack until the Titans drafted Dorial Green-Beckham. DGB has the potential to break out, but seemed to be just feeling his way through his rookie season and relying on his physical gifts to make plays. This is fine, but in order to become a regular starter on your fantasy team, you will want him to start putting up good numbers on a more regular basis. Take him as a late rounder with the potential to start if he puts it all together in his 2^nd season. None of the other receivers are worth owning unless they start to develop a healthier rapport with Mariota.

The trade for Murray suggests that the Titans want to utilize the ground and pound strategy and run Mariota in the option as well. Murray should expect a nice rebound year now that he is removed from the “mad scientist” Chip Kelly. (I say mad scientist as a bitter Eagles fan who is relieved to see him gone) I would expect Murray to surpass 1,000 yards again with a concrete o-line paving the way and plays that are called to have Murray run up the field instead of to the sidelines. I would Expect RB1 numbers out of Murray again this year. The former rushing champ definitely won’t hit 1,800 yards like he did with the Cowboys a couple of years ago, but he should net solid enough numbers to warrant being regularly started on your fantasy squad.

Mariota missed 4 games due to injury last season, but showed promise despite being the 22^nd ranked QB last year. Since rushing yards and touchdowns for QB’s can make them infinitely more valuable, (Example A: Cam Newton) the former Oregon Duck definitely merits some fantasy consideration. I would draft him as a backup, and if he gets hot, consider playing him when the matchup is right. The QB is very smart, and I don’t think it will take him long to fully adapt to the NFL game.

Probably the most valuable commodity on this offense is tight end Delanie Walker. Walker put together his 2^nd solid season with the Titans, catching 94 balls for 1,088 yards and 6 scores. By the end of the season, it seemed like he was targeted on almost every pass play. Draft him as your starter and don’t stress about a bad game because those should be few and far between.

The Titans have quietly put together an underrated defense. They have some quality pieces on all levels of the defense despite not being fantasy relevant in the past couple of years. Having Dick LeBeau as a defensive coordinator means that it won’t be long before offenses dread having the Titans on their schedule. I don’t expect them to be an elite defense this year, but with a solid draft this year, they could be a force to be reckoned with. You probably don’t need to draft them, but they could be a hot waiver wire add early in the season. If you know about the potential before the season begins, you will know when to put in a claim for this unit before they face an easy part of their schedule.

League Edge    March 26, 2016