Atlanta Falcons:

If you are reading this and you are a Falcon’s fan: I am sorry about that late season collapse. It had to have been really tough to watch after setting the league on fire through 8 games. Despite the collapse, there were a lot of positive takes from last season.

On offense, the Falcons found a running game and that game is named Devonta Freeman. Over the first half of the season, Freeman absolutely lit it up. Over the second half, like much of his team, he slowed down a bit. Rookie Tevin Coleman proved to be an intriguing handcuff when he filled in for Freeman as well. Coleman did struggle with holding onto the ball a little, which will keep him relegated to the backup role. Freeman will get enough carries to warrant being on your fantasy team, the question is where do you draft him? I will give a more detailed answer when I do my pre-draft player rankings, but after the slide he saw at the end of last season, I am leaning towards drafting him as an RB2 and hoping for the best. Over the last 8 games of the season, Freeman averaged over 3.4 yards per carry in a game twice. This compared 6 times in the first half. Those numbers display my skepticism perfectly.

Obviously Julio Jones is a freak of nature and deserves to be a top 15 pick in every standard draft. The Falcons did sign Mohamed Sanu away from Cincinnati, but I wouldn’t expect him to put up any better than WR3 numbers unless Matt Ryan return to playing like a reliable QB. I would draft Ryan as a backup QB or a very low-end QB1 and hope for the best. The signing of guard Alex Mack should help him stay on his feet long enough to find Jones and Sanu often enough to move the chains.

Tight end Jacob Tamme had a few decent games last year, but only warrants a start in a pinch where your starter gets injured or goes on a bye week. He is not a very predictable fantasy player.

There aren’t any other fantasy relevant commodities on this offense, so let’s move to the other side of the ball where the defense is looking the best it has in years. The front 7 is solid, and they held opponents to 105 yards on the ground per game good for 14^th in the league. The back end has a star in Desmond Trufant, but the other players around him do not hold down the fort the way he does. I would expect the Falcons to look for help, especially at the safety position in the draft. The Falcons are a sneaky play because of their ability to hold opponents down in the run game. If they were matched up with a team that struggles passing, they could have a decent fantasy day. I would not draft them, but don’t shoo them away like they are a completely useless defense either.

New Orleans Saints:

It just seems that ever since the Saints won the Super Bowl back in ’09 that the team has been steadily declining every year. There are a lot of factors that I would attribute this decline to. One factor I would not include is Drew Brees. Despite being one of the oldest QB’s in the league, Brees still lead the NFL in passing yards last season and threw for 32 touchdowns. Brees’ stats aren’t as ridiculous as they have been in the past where he became the first quarterback ever to throw for over 5,000 yards in 3 straight seasons, but he is still a very viable passer. He can be taken as a mid-level starter in the mid rounds, but there is always the threat that age will continue to creep up on him and hurt his numbers. I think it is safe to say that his best years are behind him, and that while the drop off shouldn’t be massive, the stats should decline every year from here. In other words; buyer beware.

Unfortunately for Brees, his weapons have significantly declined since he could chose either Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston in his prime, or Darren Sproles out of the backfield. Now his best weapon is Brandin Cooks who is a very good playmaker, but not the target machines that the previous three were. A lot of people like Cooks, and I am one of them, but I would not take him expecting consistent WR1 numbers. He has yet to prove consistency even though he has plenty of games that are top WR numbers. He is a feast of famine play, but the feasts are more frequent than the famines making for a very solid WR2. A developing weapon is undrafted talent Willie Snead. He came on very strong earning his first season with a major role in this offense. He is probably more of a WR3, but both Snead and Cooks have the talent to play above where they will likely be drafted.

Replacing star tight end Jimmy Graham at the tight end spot last year was a resurgent Ben Watson who at 34 years old had the best season of his career. The Saints did not seem to bank on him being the long-term answer, which is why they went out and paid a hefty sum of money to go sign Coby Fleener away from the Colts. While he struggled to find success with the Colts, One would have to think he will have every chance to put up very big numbers in arguably the friendliest offense for tight ends in the NFL. He is definitely worth drafting, and I would say somewhere in rounds 5 to 9 are good spots for him. Personally I would have liked to see better success in Indy before picking him as my number 1 tight end in rounds 5-7, but every draft is different and there will be plenty of time this offseason to see if he is getting a hold of the playbook.

Despite missing the last 4 games of last season, Mark Ingram still put up the 13^th best season of any back last year. What really made Ingram such a consistent fantasy commodity was his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. This allowed him to stay on the field for all 3 downs and become a more complete back. He is a surefire round 1 or 2 pick, and if he lasts past round 2 it would shock me after the season he just had.

The real downfall of this team over the past half decade has been the absolute miserable play on defense. The Saints constantly find themselves in shootouts because Brees can sling the rock and anyone can sling it against this D. Hopefully by firing Rob Ryan, some fresh blood can help get this unit back on track since there are talented players here. Don’t draft them, but if new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen can harness the talent, this could be a very good team.

I would expect the saints to draft for defense in the draft, specifically in the secondary.

Carolina Panthers:

There was certainly a lot that went into the Panthers marvelous season. Defenses win championships, and this defense almost did just that. They are definitely expected to be one of the top defenses again going into next year’s fantasy drafts, especially if they can find another pass rusher. Draft them as a top 5 D/ST, but don’t draft them the way fantasy owners have been drafting the Seahawks in the past couple of years. 4 teams finished ahead of them in fantasy points last year, and I am willing to bet that none of them went before the Seahawks in drafts for 99% of leagues.

There are more questions on the other side of the ball however. While the Panthers can certainly move the ball, (and they ranked #1 in offense last year) I don’t think that they were quite all that they appeared. Before last season, I took a look at the strength of schedule for the running game, and I saw that the Panthers had the weakest opposing schedule against the run based on last 2014 stats. I knew that DeAngelo Williams had moved to Pittsburgh to play for the Steelers and that Jonathan Stewart was going to get a chance to finally shoulder the load of the Panthers run game. I targeted him in the 4^th round of drafts, and I nabbed him, and at least for the 2^nd half of the season, he played very well and was well worth the draft pick. Had the strength of schedule been on the other end of the spectrum with such luck that the Packers had, I would probably not have looked at Stewart until the 6^th round or later. Without that run game available, I don’t think it would have been as easy for Cam to have the absurd season that he had. Strength of schedule will help determine where to draft Stewart again, but keep in mind that Cam will probably steal a lot of his touchdowns. Cameron Artis-Payne also started to eat into Stewart’s load by the end of the year. I would probably look to Stewart in round 6ish.

I don’t want to take anything away from Cam Newton, because the guy is the most physically talented quarterback to ever enter this league. That isn’t even a disputable statement. What is slightly questionable is how he managed to throw for 35 touchdowns with Ted Ginn as his primary receiver all year. Having Greg Olsen helps, but here are a few numbers to consider: Newton had the 16^th most passing yards in the league, which is right in the middle of the league. It’s actually closer to the bottom when you factor in team passing yards, Newton sinks into the bottom half of the league. In fact, when you look at QB’s who had at least 150 pass attempts; Newton came in as the 27^th in completion percentage. These are stats that we judge normal QB’s by, and by those standards, he is definitely below average. But Newton isn’t a normal QB. When you rush for 10 touchdowns and over 600 yards, it doesn’t matter what your completion percentage is, especially in fantasy football. With Kelvin Benjamin coming back from injury and another year of experience for prospect Devin Funchess to mature, I would expect Newton to be a top 5 QB again this year, and many will take him as the first QB off the board. If the panthers get another weapon in the draft, you may be looking at a truly unstoppable NFL team.

So where do you draft the pass-catchers in this offense? Greg Olsen has been a consistent force for years, and deserves to be drafted like a top 5 tight end in the round 5-8 area. If all signs point to Benjamin looking healthy and ready to improve on his rookie season, he should be drafted like a WR2/WR3 with the upside to play like a WR1. The Panthers run the ball a lot, but Benjamin should catch his fair share of touchdowns. I would look to him in rounds 4-6, knowing that he could perform like a very good WR2. Funchess is no more than a late round flier, but his potential to be Kelvin Benjamin-like is very much there. Ted Ginn should also be drafted late. He is a big-play threat, but those kinds of players rarely are fantasy-consistent, especially when they aren’t the top option on the team.

This is a young team in a similar mold of the Seattle Seahawks, and I would expect the two teams to be competing for Super Bowl berths for the next half decade.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

There is another changing of the guard here in Tampa Bay. Yes the left guard position will now be occupied by Seattle castoff J.R. Sweezy, but the real change here will be at head coach where the Bucs 2015 offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will take over as head coach. After the job he did to rejuvenate this offense, this seems like a good hire. I think after this many years as a head coach, it is finally fair to call Lovie Smith overrated. Other than the year where the Bears lost to the Indianapolis Colts in the Super Bowl back in early 2007, where they had a championship caliber defense, Lovie Smith has not fielded any really good teams. He will move on to coach the University of Illinois next season.

Koetter has a lot on offense to work with. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston proved to be worth the first overall pick, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. He also rushed for other 200 and 6 touchdowns. Winston’s completion percentage wasn’t great at 58.3%, but we should expect that to improve in year two along with reducing his 17 turnovers. Winston has weapons around him, and should be a decent QB2. He finished as the 14^th ranked QB last year, and there is no reason to believe that he can’t move into the starting ranks sometime either this year or in the next 2 years. I would still draft him as a backup considering how much the Bucs run the football.

Despite the presence of veteran Vincent Jackson, there is only one wide receiver worth drafting and that is Mike Evans. He followed his stellar rookie performance up by grabbing 74 balls for 1,206 yards and 3 scores. Evans started the year a little slow, and never quite got the red-zone rapport down with Winston, but with another full offseason to work together, I would expect the 6’5” Evans to be a primary end-zone target this year making his potential for WR1 numbers very high. He is likely a 2^nd round pick, and if he falls to the 3^rd, it would be wise to snag him up before someone else does.

Speaking of sky-scraping receiving options, 2^nd year tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins doubled his touchdown total from his rookie year. (Albeit from 2 to 4) He has still not proved a consistent option going into his 3^rd year as a pro, and health has been a major factor. He has only played 16 of a possible 32 games so far. If he can stay healthy, he could be in line for a breakout season. He is worth no more than a late-round flier due to lack of any dependability.

What makes this offense really move is the run game. It all starts with Doug Martin, but we can’t forget about Charles Sims either. Martin finished 2^nd in the league in rushing yards with 1,402. Sims actually was 2^nd on the team in receptions and yards with 51 and 561 respectively. The two complement each other well, and create a lot of mismatch problems for opposing defenses. Martin is not a huge touchdown threat. But he does get enough work in the receiving game to warrant being a RB1. I drafted him in round 6 last year, betting on the pre-season hype train and it paid off big for my team. There is no way he will last that long again this year, and he could go anywhere in rounds 1-3 depending on where people think he should go. I would say round 2 is where I would prefer him, I really like my round 1 pick to have a greater touchdown potential and not just rely on total yards for fantasy points. Sims actually put up over 1,000 total yards and 4 scores, which is worth some flex consideration. He will likely be a mid-round pick, but don’t expect him to carry your team unless Martin gets hurt.

The Bucs D/ST finished right in the middle of the pack, and I would expect similar things this year. They have some good pieces, but their secondary really needs some help, and I am not sure Brent Grimes is enough to fix the back end. They should not be drafted barring a major draft remodel, but keep an eye on their matchups as they could be a good streaming play, especially against a team that struggles to pass the ball.

League Edge    March 22, 2016